TMC
12-16-2007, 08:39 AM
Ourlads has an article about how important the draft is an where picks are selected.
Link: http://www.ourlads.com/dayone.cfm
Now, this article talks about 2-deep depth charts, which means 2 players at a position. As you can see, when you count 2 corners, you are talking starters. When you talk 2 QBs, you are talking a starter and a backup. So, these numbers are not perfect, but IMO, you can use them to come to some important conclusions. (I think I also need to mention that this was done from 2005 to present, which means the bigger contracts of first and 2nd rounders could skew the numbers in their favor. So, keep that in mind).
Now, I took their lists and removed fullback, longsnapper, kicker, and punter because these guys are not highly sought after in the draft. Now, there are some kickers that teams will draft in the first, like Janikowski, but that is not normal. So, I pulled those 4 positions out so they would not skew my other numbers. Here is what I found:
CB-60% were taken on the first day, 12% in the 4th, and 14% went undrafted.
DE-58% were taken on the first day, 11% in the 4th, and 19% went undrafted.
DT-43% were taken on the first day, 9% in the 4th, and 18% went undrafted.
LB-46% were taken on the first day, 15% in the 4th, and 20% went undrafted.
OL-42% were taken on the first day, 11% in the 4th, and 20% went undrafted.
QB-54% were taken on the first day, 7% in the 4th, and 21% went undrafted.
RB-65% were taken on the first day, 11% in the 4th, and 21% went undrafted.
S-40% were taken on the first day, 11% in the 4th, and 23% went undrafted.
TE-51% were taken on the first day, 9% in the 4th, and 15% went undrafted.
WR-58% were taken on the first day, 10% in the 4th, and 18% went undrafted.
Now, the totals should not surprise, here is where the majority of the players in the NFL 2-deep were drafted:
1st-22%
2nd-17%
3rd-12%
4th-11%
5th-8%
6th-7%
7th-6%
UDFA-18%
The final three rounds of the draft do not produce a tremendous amount of talent that sticks in the NFL UNLESS you are looking for a fullback, kicker, punter, or longsnapper.
For all K, LS, P, and FBs, 58% went undrafted. Only 10% were selected on the first day with the majority of that number being fullbacks. Punters and kickers did pick up in the 3rd, but if you are going to draft a specialist, the 7th round comes first, then the 4th (where you obviously see the top one or two go), then the 6th.
I thought these numbers were interesting. We have discussed many times on this board why our 2nd day picks fail to make the roster. Obviously, it is not just our picks, but 2nd day picks across the NFL struggle to make rosters.
PS: I had something similar to this posted yesterday, but it was deleted. Probably because I posted it too soon and the date was screwed. If that is not the reason, feel free to delete it again.
Link: http://www.ourlads.com/dayone.cfm
Now, this article talks about 2-deep depth charts, which means 2 players at a position. As you can see, when you count 2 corners, you are talking starters. When you talk 2 QBs, you are talking a starter and a backup. So, these numbers are not perfect, but IMO, you can use them to come to some important conclusions. (I think I also need to mention that this was done from 2005 to present, which means the bigger contracts of first and 2nd rounders could skew the numbers in their favor. So, keep that in mind).
Now, I took their lists and removed fullback, longsnapper, kicker, and punter because these guys are not highly sought after in the draft. Now, there are some kickers that teams will draft in the first, like Janikowski, but that is not normal. So, I pulled those 4 positions out so they would not skew my other numbers. Here is what I found:
CB-60% were taken on the first day, 12% in the 4th, and 14% went undrafted.
DE-58% were taken on the first day, 11% in the 4th, and 19% went undrafted.
DT-43% were taken on the first day, 9% in the 4th, and 18% went undrafted.
LB-46% were taken on the first day, 15% in the 4th, and 20% went undrafted.
OL-42% were taken on the first day, 11% in the 4th, and 20% went undrafted.
QB-54% were taken on the first day, 7% in the 4th, and 21% went undrafted.
RB-65% were taken on the first day, 11% in the 4th, and 21% went undrafted.
S-40% were taken on the first day, 11% in the 4th, and 23% went undrafted.
TE-51% were taken on the first day, 9% in the 4th, and 15% went undrafted.
WR-58% were taken on the first day, 10% in the 4th, and 18% went undrafted.
Now, the totals should not surprise, here is where the majority of the players in the NFL 2-deep were drafted:
1st-22%
2nd-17%
3rd-12%
4th-11%
5th-8%
6th-7%
7th-6%
UDFA-18%
The final three rounds of the draft do not produce a tremendous amount of talent that sticks in the NFL UNLESS you are looking for a fullback, kicker, punter, or longsnapper.
For all K, LS, P, and FBs, 58% went undrafted. Only 10% were selected on the first day with the majority of that number being fullbacks. Punters and kickers did pick up in the 3rd, but if you are going to draft a specialist, the 7th round comes first, then the 4th (where you obviously see the top one or two go), then the 6th.
I thought these numbers were interesting. We have discussed many times on this board why our 2nd day picks fail to make the roster. Obviously, it is not just our picks, but 2nd day picks across the NFL struggle to make rosters.
PS: I had something similar to this posted yesterday, but it was deleted. Probably because I posted it too soon and the date was screwed. If that is not the reason, feel free to delete it again.