Slaine
04-24-2008, 08:27 AM
Educated guess: College expert takes stab at predicting prospects
Stewart Mandel - Si.com
Regular readers of my College Football Mailbag know well my feelings about the NFL draft process. I even devoted an entire chapter of a book to mocking the charade. Rather than rehash all that here, I'd rather call to your attention two recent quotes I found particularly amusing:
"Are you kidding me? It's not like we play the games in shorts."
-- A major college assistant, speaking to me about the NFL's absurd overemphasis on combines and 40 times.
"Half [of mock drafts] are put together by NFL writers who watched two Notre Dame games at the airport bar and the second half of the Sugar Bowl."
-- Dan Patrick in last week's Sports Illustrated.
My annual overrated/underrated list is based almost entirely on me reading the aforementioned mock drafts and projections and thinking to myself: "Are you serious? Are they really talking about the same guy I watched in college?"
The answer, of course, is no. In most cases they're talking about a guy the scouts watched in a combine drill and downgraded because he "doesn't use his hands properly at the point of attack." (Try using that phrase in an every-day conversation.)
Quarterback
Overrated: Matt Ryan, Boston College
To be clear: Ryan definitely sold me as a future pro last season, particularly with his improbable game-winning throws at Virginia Tech and Clemson. I realize he's the best QB in this draft and I realize there will always be teams at the top of the list that need a quarterback, but potential top-three pick? Really? That's putting a lot of undue pressure on a guy who ranked 61st in the country in pass efficiency last season and threw 19 interceptions.
The ideal situation for him would be to go late in the first round to a team that doesn't need him to play right away. Instead, he's going to land with the Falcons or some other team that views him as its franchise quarterback. Ask Jay Cutler how that's working out.
Underrated: Chad Henne, Michigan
I feel like Henne isn't getting his proper due because of what appears to be a disappointing senior season. He threw for 1,938 yards. What people don't realize is Henne played the second half of the season with so much pain in his shoulder he couldn't practice during the week. The trainers would shoot him up before the games.
The real Henne is the guy who threw for 373 yards against Florida in the Capital One Bowl, the guy who got overshadowed by John David Booty in the 2007 Rose Bowl but himself completed one NFL-caliber throw after another. He's a good, solid player with a fantastic arm, and he was a four-year starter at Michigan, a place that's seen its share of future pro QBs. If I had to take a first-round QB, he would be it.
Running back
Overrated: Jamaal Charles, Texas
Charles was phenomenal over the second half of last season, averaging more than 179 yards over his last five games, but that was really the first time we'd seen any true consistency out of him. Last year was his first as the feature guy -- after sharing carries his first two seasons -- and he struggled for much of the it. Therefore, he really could have used another year in school.
Charles is a guy that got by mostly on his blazing speed. To me, he's still a very raw running back who will need some time and serious nurturing to mature into a complete back. There was a better chance of that happening in Austin than in an NFL tailback stable.
Underrated: Kevin Smith, Central Florida
The guy ran for 2,567 yards last season. Let me repeat that: 2,567 yards. Yet he's buried way down the list of running backs in this draft. How? You want to say he piled up those numbers against weak Conference USA opponents? What about 217 yards against NC State and 149 against Texas?
But more important ... have you watched the guy? He's got some unbelievable moves. From SI.com's scouting profile: "Weaves his way through the inside, finding the openings on the field, makes defenders miss, and quickly gets through the cut-back lanes." Projection: early third round. That makes sense.
Wide receiver
Overrated: DeSean Jackson, Cal
You know how the wide-receiver position tends to attract an inordinate share of head cases? Here's your next one: Only Jackson won't be anywhere near as productive as a Terrell Owens or Chad Johnson. Heck, he wasn't overly productive in college last season, ranking 88th nationally among receivers with 65 catches for 762 yards.
Believe me, there's nothing more electrifying than watching Jackson break a punt return, and that's the one area where I'm sure he'll be a standout at the next level. But with Jackson a projected first-rounder, I would presume the team that drafts him is expecting him to become a 1,000-yard receiver as well. Minus a complete attitude transformation by Jackson, I don't see it happening
Underrated: James Hardy, Indiana
It may be a stretch to say he's underrated, as I have seen some projections that have Hardy as high as the No. 2 receiver in the draft but others have him much lower. Besides Jackson and Devin Thomas, there seems to be much disagreement over who exactly the elite receivers are in this draft (Malcolm Kelly? Limas Sweed? Mario Manningham?).
All I know is, for a league obsessed with size, the NFL, you would think, couldn't go wrong with a guy who's 6-foot-5 1/2, racked up 1,125 yards last season and scored 36 touchdowns in three years. Hardy was an absolutely dominant performer for the Hoosiers and there's no reason to think he won't become a go-to NFL receiver.
Offensive line
Overrated: Mike Pollak, Arizona State
I've got to be honest: I have no idea how to spot an overrated offensive lineman. Therefore, Pollak got this nod for no particularly legitimate reason other than I couldn't find fault with any of the guards or tackles. He's the draft's top-rated center yet he played on an offensive line that got absolutely abused by the three best teams it faced last season: Oregon, USC and Texas. (Strangely, the No. 2 center, Notre Dame's John Sullivan, also played for an atrocious O-line. I guess it wasn't their fault.)
Underrated: Sam Baker, USC
Let's see here. Baker was the starting left tackle -- most important position on the line -- for the most dominant program in the country for four straight years. When Baker got injured last season, quarterback Mark Sanchez (filing in for Booty at the time) suddenly found himself running for his life. Based purely on Baker's college track record, I assumed he would be one of, if not the top, tackle on the board; instead, I see he's barely in the top 10. Baker reportedly did not test well at USC's pro day, which means, of course, that those four years never happened.
Defensive line
Overrated: Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina
I'd like to think I follow college football fairly closely, so what I'm about to admit may seem a tad bit embarrassing: I had literally never heard of this guy prior to this week. So you can imagine my surprise when I saw him smack dab in Peter King's first-round Mock Draft. Either I need to start watching more ACC football (which itself may require a steady IV drip) or there's a legit reason I'd never heard of him: The fact is he did almost nothing to distinguish himself his first three seasons. He did have a big senior season, earning all-conference honors, but mostly, he's just big (6-4 1/2, 308 pounds).
Underrated: Quentin Groves, Auburn
Groves was limited by injuries at times last season, but when he was at his best, he was definitely one of those guys who can take over a game just by the pressure he puts on opposing quarterbacks. He did just that in the Tigers' early season upset at Florida, helping limit Heisman winner Tim Tebow to mostly short completions. The year before, when fully healthy, he notched 9.5 sacks. The only defensive end I'd rank above him is Chris Long, and if, as projected, Groves slips into the second round, someone is going to get themselves an absolute steal.
Linebacker
Overrated: Vernon Gholston, Ohio State
A) I couldn't find a pure linebacker I thought was overrated, but some are projecting Gholston to play such in a 3-4. B) I've never understood all the fuss over this guy. I've watched a lot of Ohio State games over the past two years and only once did I see him truly dominate a contest. That was last year's Michigan game, when he had three sacks. (He did have four sacks against Wisconsin, but that game was on the Big Ten Network, so I can't be sure it actually took place.) Most notably, Gholston was a non-factor in both of the Buckeyes' BCS title-game appearances the past two seasons (against Florida in 2006 and LSU in '07). What am I missing here?
Underrated: Philip Wheeler, Georgia Tech
Here's a classic case of a guy who did nothing but produce at the highest level for one of the nation's top defenses the past three seasons (242 tackles, 35 tackles for loss and 19 sacks) yet is being downgraded by NFL types for an only-in-the-NFL reason: They can't figure out what position he should play. Is he an inside backer? Is he an outside backer? Here's an idea: Just throw him out there and let him go tackle people. Georgia Tech seemed to figure it out.
Defensive back
Overrated: Justin King, Penn State
King was one of those guys who came in with a big reputation out of high school and elicited a lot of excitement as a true freshman when Penn State used him in spot duty on offense and as a return man. No question the guy is fast, but I never understood the acclaim as a cornerback. In a game I covered in Happy Valley last season, Ohio State receiver Brian Robiskie basically did whatever he wanted against him. Ditto Mario Manningham in a game the two played their freshman seasons. Great athlete? Yes. Great cornerback? Debatable. And certainly not better than this guy ...
Underrated: Antoine Cason, Arizona
Four-year starter. Three-time All Pac-10 honoree. Fifteen career interceptions, including three touchdowns. And a signature, nationally televised performance last season against then second-ranked Oregon in which he scored on both a 42-yard interception return and a 56-yard punt return. I'm not sure you could ask for a more solid, consistent four-year career by a major-conference cornerback (Aqib Talib turned pro early), yet he's only considered a second-rounder, well behind a guy from Troy (Leodis McKelvin) and a guy from Tennessee State (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie). What more did the guy need to do?
Stewart Mandel - Si.com
Regular readers of my College Football Mailbag know well my feelings about the NFL draft process. I even devoted an entire chapter of a book to mocking the charade. Rather than rehash all that here, I'd rather call to your attention two recent quotes I found particularly amusing:
"Are you kidding me? It's not like we play the games in shorts."
-- A major college assistant, speaking to me about the NFL's absurd overemphasis on combines and 40 times.
"Half [of mock drafts] are put together by NFL writers who watched two Notre Dame games at the airport bar and the second half of the Sugar Bowl."
-- Dan Patrick in last week's Sports Illustrated.
My annual overrated/underrated list is based almost entirely on me reading the aforementioned mock drafts and projections and thinking to myself: "Are you serious? Are they really talking about the same guy I watched in college?"
The answer, of course, is no. In most cases they're talking about a guy the scouts watched in a combine drill and downgraded because he "doesn't use his hands properly at the point of attack." (Try using that phrase in an every-day conversation.)
Quarterback
Overrated: Matt Ryan, Boston College
To be clear: Ryan definitely sold me as a future pro last season, particularly with his improbable game-winning throws at Virginia Tech and Clemson. I realize he's the best QB in this draft and I realize there will always be teams at the top of the list that need a quarterback, but potential top-three pick? Really? That's putting a lot of undue pressure on a guy who ranked 61st in the country in pass efficiency last season and threw 19 interceptions.
The ideal situation for him would be to go late in the first round to a team that doesn't need him to play right away. Instead, he's going to land with the Falcons or some other team that views him as its franchise quarterback. Ask Jay Cutler how that's working out.
Underrated: Chad Henne, Michigan
I feel like Henne isn't getting his proper due because of what appears to be a disappointing senior season. He threw for 1,938 yards. What people don't realize is Henne played the second half of the season with so much pain in his shoulder he couldn't practice during the week. The trainers would shoot him up before the games.
The real Henne is the guy who threw for 373 yards against Florida in the Capital One Bowl, the guy who got overshadowed by John David Booty in the 2007 Rose Bowl but himself completed one NFL-caliber throw after another. He's a good, solid player with a fantastic arm, and he was a four-year starter at Michigan, a place that's seen its share of future pro QBs. If I had to take a first-round QB, he would be it.
Running back
Overrated: Jamaal Charles, Texas
Charles was phenomenal over the second half of last season, averaging more than 179 yards over his last five games, but that was really the first time we'd seen any true consistency out of him. Last year was his first as the feature guy -- after sharing carries his first two seasons -- and he struggled for much of the it. Therefore, he really could have used another year in school.
Charles is a guy that got by mostly on his blazing speed. To me, he's still a very raw running back who will need some time and serious nurturing to mature into a complete back. There was a better chance of that happening in Austin than in an NFL tailback stable.
Underrated: Kevin Smith, Central Florida
The guy ran for 2,567 yards last season. Let me repeat that: 2,567 yards. Yet he's buried way down the list of running backs in this draft. How? You want to say he piled up those numbers against weak Conference USA opponents? What about 217 yards against NC State and 149 against Texas?
But more important ... have you watched the guy? He's got some unbelievable moves. From SI.com's scouting profile: "Weaves his way through the inside, finding the openings on the field, makes defenders miss, and quickly gets through the cut-back lanes." Projection: early third round. That makes sense.
Wide receiver
Overrated: DeSean Jackson, Cal
You know how the wide-receiver position tends to attract an inordinate share of head cases? Here's your next one: Only Jackson won't be anywhere near as productive as a Terrell Owens or Chad Johnson. Heck, he wasn't overly productive in college last season, ranking 88th nationally among receivers with 65 catches for 762 yards.
Believe me, there's nothing more electrifying than watching Jackson break a punt return, and that's the one area where I'm sure he'll be a standout at the next level. But with Jackson a projected first-rounder, I would presume the team that drafts him is expecting him to become a 1,000-yard receiver as well. Minus a complete attitude transformation by Jackson, I don't see it happening
Underrated: James Hardy, Indiana
It may be a stretch to say he's underrated, as I have seen some projections that have Hardy as high as the No. 2 receiver in the draft but others have him much lower. Besides Jackson and Devin Thomas, there seems to be much disagreement over who exactly the elite receivers are in this draft (Malcolm Kelly? Limas Sweed? Mario Manningham?).
All I know is, for a league obsessed with size, the NFL, you would think, couldn't go wrong with a guy who's 6-foot-5 1/2, racked up 1,125 yards last season and scored 36 touchdowns in three years. Hardy was an absolutely dominant performer for the Hoosiers and there's no reason to think he won't become a go-to NFL receiver.
Offensive line
Overrated: Mike Pollak, Arizona State
I've got to be honest: I have no idea how to spot an overrated offensive lineman. Therefore, Pollak got this nod for no particularly legitimate reason other than I couldn't find fault with any of the guards or tackles. He's the draft's top-rated center yet he played on an offensive line that got absolutely abused by the three best teams it faced last season: Oregon, USC and Texas. (Strangely, the No. 2 center, Notre Dame's John Sullivan, also played for an atrocious O-line. I guess it wasn't their fault.)
Underrated: Sam Baker, USC
Let's see here. Baker was the starting left tackle -- most important position on the line -- for the most dominant program in the country for four straight years. When Baker got injured last season, quarterback Mark Sanchez (filing in for Booty at the time) suddenly found himself running for his life. Based purely on Baker's college track record, I assumed he would be one of, if not the top, tackle on the board; instead, I see he's barely in the top 10. Baker reportedly did not test well at USC's pro day, which means, of course, that those four years never happened.
Defensive line
Overrated: Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina
I'd like to think I follow college football fairly closely, so what I'm about to admit may seem a tad bit embarrassing: I had literally never heard of this guy prior to this week. So you can imagine my surprise when I saw him smack dab in Peter King's first-round Mock Draft. Either I need to start watching more ACC football (which itself may require a steady IV drip) or there's a legit reason I'd never heard of him: The fact is he did almost nothing to distinguish himself his first three seasons. He did have a big senior season, earning all-conference honors, but mostly, he's just big (6-4 1/2, 308 pounds).
Underrated: Quentin Groves, Auburn
Groves was limited by injuries at times last season, but when he was at his best, he was definitely one of those guys who can take over a game just by the pressure he puts on opposing quarterbacks. He did just that in the Tigers' early season upset at Florida, helping limit Heisman winner Tim Tebow to mostly short completions. The year before, when fully healthy, he notched 9.5 sacks. The only defensive end I'd rank above him is Chris Long, and if, as projected, Groves slips into the second round, someone is going to get themselves an absolute steal.
Linebacker
Overrated: Vernon Gholston, Ohio State
A) I couldn't find a pure linebacker I thought was overrated, but some are projecting Gholston to play such in a 3-4. B) I've never understood all the fuss over this guy. I've watched a lot of Ohio State games over the past two years and only once did I see him truly dominate a contest. That was last year's Michigan game, when he had three sacks. (He did have four sacks against Wisconsin, but that game was on the Big Ten Network, so I can't be sure it actually took place.) Most notably, Gholston was a non-factor in both of the Buckeyes' BCS title-game appearances the past two seasons (against Florida in 2006 and LSU in '07). What am I missing here?
Underrated: Philip Wheeler, Georgia Tech
Here's a classic case of a guy who did nothing but produce at the highest level for one of the nation's top defenses the past three seasons (242 tackles, 35 tackles for loss and 19 sacks) yet is being downgraded by NFL types for an only-in-the-NFL reason: They can't figure out what position he should play. Is he an inside backer? Is he an outside backer? Here's an idea: Just throw him out there and let him go tackle people. Georgia Tech seemed to figure it out.
Defensive back
Overrated: Justin King, Penn State
King was one of those guys who came in with a big reputation out of high school and elicited a lot of excitement as a true freshman when Penn State used him in spot duty on offense and as a return man. No question the guy is fast, but I never understood the acclaim as a cornerback. In a game I covered in Happy Valley last season, Ohio State receiver Brian Robiskie basically did whatever he wanted against him. Ditto Mario Manningham in a game the two played their freshman seasons. Great athlete? Yes. Great cornerback? Debatable. And certainly not better than this guy ...
Underrated: Antoine Cason, Arizona
Four-year starter. Three-time All Pac-10 honoree. Fifteen career interceptions, including three touchdowns. And a signature, nationally televised performance last season against then second-ranked Oregon in which he scored on both a 42-yard interception return and a 56-yard punt return. I'm not sure you could ask for a more solid, consistent four-year career by a major-conference cornerback (Aqib Talib turned pro early), yet he's only considered a second-rounder, well behind a guy from Troy (Leodis McKelvin) and a guy from Tennessee State (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie). What more did the guy need to do?