Interesting factoid about drafting....

[TMC]

Okay, I was reading this article at the Post Gazette....

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08115/876100-66.stm

In this article, I found this statement and found it pretty damn interesting:

"Just consider the No. 1 overall picks in the NFL draft the past 10 years. Of those, one is already out of the league (Tim Couch), another might never return (Michael Vick) and two are with different teams (Courtney Brown, David Carr). That doesn't even include quarterback Alex Smith of the San Francisco 49ers, who is still trying to determine the path on which he will embark.

That's half of the past 10 overall No. 1s who either have been washouts or are still waiting to have some significant impact with their respective teams. And those are the top players selected."

If you include Alex Smith as a bust, and at this point, I would, then 5 of 10 #1 picks overall have failed to help the team that drafted them and honestly, 4 are basically absolute busts. That does not include what happens with Jamarcus Russell. The 4 that have panned out are Mario Williams, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, and Peyton Manning.

Oddly enough, the 10 years before that, only 6 of 10 #1 picks were stellar - the 4 bad ones are Aundray Bruce (Falcons), Jeff George (Colts), Steve Emtman (Colts), and Ki-Jana Carter (Bengals).

I point this out because we always argue over whether or not a first round pick should be an immediate starter. Almost half of the #1 picks in the draft over the past 20 years have not even panned out to be decent football players, much less immediate starters.

Just found that interesting.

(And yes, I realize there is some subjectivity involved, like was Jeff George an average starter).

[Illinistlrfan]

(And yes, I realize there is some subjectivity involved, like was Jeff George an average starter).


I hear what you are saying, as a #1 pick you should at some point contribute to your team as a starter and most likely a leader. The 2 players who were considered busts were Vick and George and I would not label them that, they were starters although they missed the boat on the leader role..........Vick mostly by his off the field stuff but was a one dimensional player, George was a average QB but lacked a lot in the leadership as was a headcase.............

[Stryker]

I don;t think you can list Vick as a failure. When he was in the league, he was exciting to watch, he made numerous pro-bowls, and took a crappy team to the NFCC. If it wasn't for his 2nd job, he'd garner hall of fame consideration.

I do like your other points. Too bad that Ki Jana blew out his knee, I loved watching him in college.

[BillvinCowbert]

I point this out because we always argue over whether or not a first round pick should be an immediate starter. Almost half of the #1 picks in the draft over the past 20 years have not even panned out to be decent football players, much less immediate starters.

Just found that interesting.

(And yes, I realize there is some subjectivity involved, like was Jeff George an average starter).
I don't disagree, but I think it's skewed a bit because of the QB factor. That still seems to be the most difficult position to "project" to the next level. But teams at the top of draft are typically hurting in that position. Eight of the top ten overall were QBs in the past ten years (I was actually a bit surprised to see it was that high).

It would be interesting to see the last ten years of top ten picks and see if QB busts skews it a bit (not suggesting that you look it up, just think it would be interesting).

Still, that shows how risky that first pick is. And Parcells is no dummy; even if he doesn't think Beck is the future, to put all of your eggs in Matt Ryan's basket would be a lot riskier than doing so with Long.

[TMC]

Michael Vick in the HOF? Seriously? You do realize that Michael Vick NEVER threw for more than 3,000 yards in a season, never had a passer rating higher than 81.6, and never threw more than 20 TDs in a season. In fact, other than 1 season, he never topped 2,500 yards in a season. He had TD/INT ratios his 6 seasons of 20/13, 15/13, 14/12, 4/3, 16/8, 2/3.

You do realize that Kordell Stewart had better yearly numbers than Michael Vick. Kordell actually broke 3,000 yards in a season twice, had 2 seasons with a higher passer rating, and even threw 21 TDs, one more than Vick's best season.

I guess Stewart is heading for the HOF as well.

Vick was Kordell Stewart on another team.

[Jer]

Ki Jana blew his knee out in the pre-season and never recovered. He shouldn't be categorized as a bust. I'm thankful the Steelers didn't have to face him twice a year.

[Sluzilla]

Aaron Brooks will get to the HOF before Vick...

[dobre shunka]

Just looking at the #1 overalls doesn't really tell you much. Lot of money, pressure, and expectations involved with that pick. Generally looked at as a savior for a 2-14 team. And a high number of QBs, which is the hardest position to project. Volatile combination.

The reality is over 50% of R1 picks start their first year. 75% by Y3, and 20% are probowlers by Y3. 70% of 1st quadrant R1 players (picks 1-8) start Y1, 88% by Y3, and nearly 1 in 3 become probowlers by Y3.

The range the Steelers are picking in (the 3rd quadrant of each round) produces 44% Y1 starters from R1. (2nd quadrant, Steelers 07 position, was 59% btw). Grows to 75% by Y3, and 25% probowlers by Y3.

The 4th quandrant of R1 dips a little more. But the interesting thing is it jumps way up at the top of R2 for Y1 starters, 63%. Meaning crappy teams need to throw their rookies in, while good teams can work them in. But still, even good teams play a high percentage of their rookies.

Also there are some positions that acclimate faster than others (some schemes too, like ZBS or T2). Like along the offensive line. Offensive linemen taken in rounds 1-3 have just as high a Y1 start rate as any given R1 pick, 51%. Compared to 36% for all positions R1-3. Intelligence may factor in that, but that's not something the Steelers necessarily prize or look for in their linemen.

I don't think it's unreasonable or unrealistic to think your R1 rookie should be meaniful contributors right away. And fairly common to be Y1 starters. Better than 1 in 2. If this was a team like Philly who drafts on a 2 year horizon, then maybe. But it's not. The Steelers draft on a -1 year horizon, meaning they wait one year too long before finally addressing a position that needs attention. And it's not like this team is populated with great starters. Every position on the OL can and should be upgraded. And every position on D plus WR and RB either has aging vets, poor depth, replacement level starters, or suspects. Not an impenetrable starting lineup on either side of the ball. R1 rookies are paid a bunch, and you don't get them for as long as you could a few years ago. You need them on the field, and sooner rather than later.

[FistfullofRings]

Vick was Kordell Stewart on another team.

Vick was a dumber yet more athletic version of Kordell Stewart.

[LetMePlay]

Vick was Kordell Stewart on another team.

Vick was never as good as Korky was.

[LetMePlay]

Vick was a dumber yet more athletic version of Kordell Stewart.

Dumber than Korky?

[Sluzilla]

i have a feeling if Carr had ever had an OL...he'd have been pretty good...even though i thought he'd be a bust coming out...i feel i was wrong...he just was never given a chance to stand upright...

[LetMePlay]

The only way Alex Smith had a shot of being a decent NFL QB was if he sat for 3-4 years. He had no prayer as the first pick. For example, I think that Arron Rogers will turn out OK. I dont think he will be a HOF QB but I think he is going to make a fine NFL starter.

[mightyguru]

And this is amazing.

Curiously, the largest number of Pro Bowl players have been signed in free agency (eight), including Willie Parker and James Harrison, who were undrafted rookie free agents.

[fedderone]

I don;t think you can list Vick as a failure. When he was in the league, he was exciting to watch, he made numerous pro-bowls, and took a crappy team to the NFCC. If it wasn't for his 2nd job, he'd garner hall of fame consideration.

I do like your other points. Too bad that Ki Jana blew out his knee, I loved watching him in college.

Are you FN insane??!!
Vick's career completion percentage 53%.
I'm pretty sure the Stillas' cavalcade of losers from 1981 - 2004 were better than that, and NONE of them are going to the Hall.

He was a glorified runningback.
Nothing more.
Atlanta's success came with his feet.
They ran an NFL version of the wishbone offense with Vick, Duckett, and Dunn.
DVD, remember?

Hall of Fame.
Thanks for the laugh this morning.

[Wig]

Kordell as slash was a potential HOF player...

Kordell as QB... Well I guess he did ok on Jocks-vs-Joes last season. That probably says it all.

Vick... he really is Kordell2, a little faster... alot dumber.

[Hines57]

Vick was a better runner than Kordell, but Kordell was a much better passer, and thats saying a lot considering Kordell was challenged at reading defenses

[Vader]

Kordell as slash was a potential HOF player...

Kordell as QB... Well I guess he did ok on Jocks-vs-Joes last season. That probably says it all.

Vick... he really is Kordell2, a little faster... alot dumber.

Please name me all the HOFers that played the "slash" position... I'll wait....

[south dakota STEEL]

saying linemen should be the 1st pick? maybe they should. the game relies on them on both sides of the ball.

[General Manager]

Are you FN insane??!!
Vick's career completion percentage 53%.
I'm pretty sure the Stillas' cavalcade of losers from 1981 - 2004 were better than that, and NONE of them are going to the Hall.

He was a glorified runningback.
Nothing more.
Atlanta's success came with his feet.
They ran an NFL version of the wishbone offense with Vick, Duckett, and Dunn.
DVD, remember?

Hall of Fame.
Thanks for the laugh this morning.

I believe he stated he would get considerations. Considerations aren't votes. But when he played us though he played like a hall of famer.

[Spike]

I don;t think you can list Vick as a failure...

Is that what his parole board will be asking?

[JEFFRO]

Michael Vick in the HOF? Seriously? You do realize that Michael Vick NEVER threw for more than 3,000 yards in a season, never had a passer rating higher than 81.6, and never threw more than 20 TDs in a season. In fact, other than 1 season, he never topped 2,500 yards in a season. He had TD/INT ratios his 6 seasons of 20/13, 15/13, 14/12, 4/3, 16/8, 2/3.

You do realize that Kordell Stewart had better yearly numbers than Michael Vick. Kordell actually broke 3,000 yards in a season twice, had 2 seasons with a higher passer rating, and even threw 21 TDs, one more than Vick's best season.

I guess Stewart is heading for the HOF as well.

Vick was Kordell Stewart on another team.

Pretty much sums it up!

Kordell as slash was a potential HOF player...

Kordell as QB... Well I guess he did ok on Jocks-vs-Joes last season. That probably says it all.

Vick... he really is Kordell2, a little faster... alot dumber.

Please name me all the HOFers that played the "slash" position... I'll wait....

I gotta agree with Vader here, BUT I will say that if Kordell had played WR he definitely had HOF potential there. Too bad he was (is) too stubborn to see that he was not a great QB but could have made more money and had a better career at WR. He still has his blinders on as I heard him on a radio station say if he had it all over to do again he would still play QB. :rolleyes:

[Vader]

I gotta agree with Vader here, BUT I will say that if Kordell had played WR he definitely had HOF potential there. Too bad he was (is) too stubborn to see that he was not a great QB but could have made more money and had a better career at WR. He still has his blinders on as I heard him on a radio station say if he had it all over to do again he would still play QB. :rolleyes:

But it was NEVER possible. Kordell was draft to play QB. O'Donnell left for NY and the $$$ and we needed a QB. Everybody (including wig) made excuses for Kordell while he was playing QB. At the time they would have cried like babies if Cowher had not let Kordy be the QB. It is only hindsight that these people now say "He would have been a great WR". We really don't even know that.

[slashsteel]

Vick was Kordell Stewart on another team.

I wouldn't even give Vick this much. Slash could catch. :)

[CLUTCH]

Vick was a HOF everytime we played him; he made our defense look like dumb and dumber............check the tapes

[Quick Draw]

I pray we never get the 1st overall.

[tapeANaspirin2it]

Is Jake Long a bust if he has to play RT instead of LT? I'm not so sure Long will be a LT in the NFL.

[Quick Draw]

I like Jake just fine but I think he'll struggle with speed rushers coming off the corner. At least temporarily.

[JEFFRO]

But it was NEVER possible. Kordell was draft to play QB. O'Donnell left for NY and the $$$ and we needed a QB. Everybody (including wig) made excuses for Kordell while he was playing QB. At the time they would have cried like babies if Cowher had not let Kordy be the QB. It is only hindsight that these people now say "He would have been a great WR". We really don't even know that.

When Kordell played Slash I thought "Man he would be an excellent receiver."

Yes I knew he was drafted to play QB and when he became the starter of course I hoped he would excel but after the loss in the playoffs in 98 I really hoped Cowher would pull the plug on the experimant and put him back at WR.

I believe he could have been a great WR. No evidence, I just remember him being fast, came out of his breaks well, could catch and make a defender miss.