TMC

I am not going to beat around the bush this week, the Steelers are banged up, battered, and bruised. This will take a total team effort to beat the Ravens. The Steelers best offensive weapon, Ben Roethlisberger, won't play. The Steelers best defensive weapon, Troy Polamalu, won't play. While there are many that think you can just plug a guy in behind another player and keep moving, in reality, you pay these guys this type of money because they get it done and do it significantly better than most in the league, not just on your team. When you can plug a guy in and not see a drop off, it simply tells me that there was not a significant difference in talent between the starter and his backup. If there is a plus, the Ravens have more trainers at their facilities these days than they have coaches. Terrell Suggs did not participate in practice and is doubtful. Ed Reed is sick, did not participate, and is questionable. Ray Lewis is also questionable. With all that said, you still have to play the game.


Steelers Defense VS Ravens Offense
The one thing that the Ravens have tried very hard to do is balance this offense. Gone are the days of the run first offense because they have found a quarterback. Now, I am not sold on Flacco as being a top shelf quarterback yet, but he has shown enough to make me respect what he can do. He is not Kyle Boller. If they have an area of weakness, I think it is in their running game. They have turned the reigns over to Ray Rice and he has had an excellent season, but you just do not see many 5'8"-200 pound running backs that can withstand the beating for 16 games. They have had a serious drop off with McGahee and he has only started one game this season and really not been a factor in any. McClain has been very quiet as well.

When the Ravens throw, their weapons are virtually the same as they were last year and they are utilizing the pass more. In fact, the Ravens ran the football 592 times in 2008 and through 10 games, they have ran it a mere 274 times. The Ravens, once a dynamic running team, now throws the football 57% of the time. They are putting the games in Flacco's hands, which could be the break the Steelers need this week to sneak out with a win.

As always, the key to any game plan is to stop the rushing attack of the opponent first. Even if they like to throw, you want to force them to rely on the pass, not make it a choice. If they can choose to run, they can fool you, catch you in a bad coverage, and gash you. You force them to throw by stuffing the run. The Ravens are another strong middle run team choosing to keep it between the guards 54% of the time. They are effective at it and average over 4 yards per carry in the middle. In fact, the Ravens are pretty effective to all points, with only the left guard to left tackle area yielding less than 4 yards per carry. When they do not run the middle, they prefer the left hand side. You will only see them run right 4-5 times a game.

Therefore, the key to stopping the run game starts with Casey Hampton and the middle linebackers. They have to be stout in the middle. Matt Birk is a veteran center, but he is probable with a neck injury. I have also felt that Birk was a little more finesse than power, so I expect Hampton to hold that center. The Ravens guards, Chester and Grubbs, are probably as good as you will see. It will be tough sledding with those two, but I think we have some tough guys in Keisel, Eason, Farrior, and Timmons, so again, I expect the middle to be stout. Where it gets interesting is on the edge. I like the matchup of Harrison on Gaither. Gaither is coming into his own, but at 6'9" he is the type of tackle that Harrison can really give problems. He is tall and long, but Harrison's build and compact stature really seems to give those tall tackles fits. I also think that Woodley can shake Oher. I like Oher. I hate that Oher is a Raven, but since he is, lets end this Cinderella story. Oher has shown some rookie tendencies, he does give up a few sacks and has false started some, so here is where I expect LeBeau to send Woodley all game. Bring him on run blitzes and when passing. I think the front seven can stuff the run this week.

When the Ravens pass, they will continue to look for their main weapons, which is Ray Rice out the backfield and Derrick Mason. The screens and swing passes to Ray Rice has become a staple of this offense. Rice has 11 more receptions than any other player. I think the key here is to commit Timmons to Ray Rice. I think you have Timmons shadow Rice on specific downs and distances. When it is 1st or 2nd down and long, you have Timmons shadow Rice. The Ravens show a tendency to throw left to Rice, so it does not disrupt scheme to do this. On third down, you also make sure someone is one Rice because early downs with more than 6 yards and third down are the key times the Ravens look for Rice. As for Mason, he gets a heavy dose of Ike Taylor. James Farrior will cover Todd Heap. William Gay will cover Clayton. We use our safeties for help over the top, you bring the defensive line and the outside linebackers every chance you get. Flacco can be rattled and he will throw interceptions.


Steelers Offense VS Titans Defense
With Roethlisberger, I would be a lot more confident with this game. The Steelers will be missing two starters off the offensive with Roethlisberger and Kemoeatu out. I feel pretty good about Foster replacing Kemoeatu. I think Foster is going to turn into a solid player for us and he played well last week. He has a tough task at hand this week facing Ngata. I think he will get help from Starks but I would expect the Ravens to work games on his side in an attempt to get free runs at Dixon. The key to this game will be Dixon, because the Ravens will focus on stopping the run and force Dixon to beat us.

When the Steelers run, they will continue to run the middle and right tackle. The Steelers run the middle and right tackle 71% of the time, they will not shy away from that now. The key to this game will be Colon on Trevor Pryce and Essex getting to the second level to put a hat on Ray Lewis. If the Steelers can get that done, the running game will produce. I would also not be afraid of calling a draw on third down to take advantage of the hard charging Pryce and Johnson and it would keep the pressure off of Dixon. They need to look to protect Dixon some, limit the opportunities he has to make a bad mistake, and hope that the defense can create some favorable opportunities.

When the Steelers pass, Dixon has to be Dennis Dixon and not try to be Ben Roethlisberger. Dixon has a unique skill set that allows him to do some things and he has to take advantage of that. When the Ravens press Dixon out of the pocket, he needs to use his legs, get the yards, and get down. The last thing the Steelers can afford is an injury to Dixon, so he has to play smart. His feet will be a huge advantage to him because Ben has slipped through the Ravens pass rush and beaten them with his arm, Dixon needs to remember his legs. I like the crossing routes with Dixon. I would not be afraid to throw some wide receiver screens early in an attempt to settle him down.

The key to Dixon throwing the shorter routes early is this, I want the Ravens to think the Steelers are simply protecting Dixon so the safeties will come forward, looking to congest the middle of the field. If that happens, I let Dixon take his shots with Wallace over the top. Landry and Reed are a good safety tandem, but if you can get them pinching in, get Wallace in man coverage with Walker or Carr, he has a distinct advantage and Dixon has a strong arm. I take that shot. This is a game where Dixon has to be smart, but not passive. I think Ward and Miller will be huge on the shorter routes. I like Mendenhall and Moore out of the backfield because Dixon has shown he will check it down. This has to become the type of game where field goals can win it and the defense that makes a mistake will lose.


Special Teams
I think Reed has an advantage in the kicking department. Cundiff is a good kicker, but in his seven attempts, he has missed one. Reed has missed three all season, one over forty and one over fifty. I like the clutch of Reed in this matchup. When it comes to punters, it is a wash. Koch gets a little more in distance but Sepulveda does a better job of sticking them inside the twenty without giving up the touchback. Sepulveda also forces more fair catches. In the return game, the Steelers coverage is suspect and the Ravens have a good kickoff return unit. The punt return units are a wash.

Steelers 15-Ravens 10