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Thread: 2017 NFL Draft Q&A

  1. #341
    Quote Originally Posted by FordFairLane View Post
    Another defensive question. So what do you think of Sidney Jones? If he's sitting there with the Steelers comp pick are you pulling the trigger?

    Two guys I think aren't getting any love which I like is Shaquill Griffin and Jalen Myrick. Thoughts on those guys?
    If my medical team tells me they think he can fully recover from his injury, yes. In fact, in the 2nd, if there are not any comparable players, I'm not against taking him then. Here is how I view it....take a guy like TJ Watt, I think he is a year away from being NFL ready, maybe 2 away from being a full-time starter. I think he has to play with more power at the point to count on him as a full-time starter. If Jones was not injured, I think he could be starting within the first 8 weeks of his rookie season, so after the injury, he should start logging minutes. So, if he sees some minutes in the final 8 games and is full go ready to start in Y2, how is that any different than a guy that needs a year to acclimate? So, if my medical team checks off, I'm all in. Now, do I think there will be healthy comparable talent available in the 2nd? Yeah, probably. So, I think the 3rd is about right, don't think he makes it to us though. If things broke the way I would like, we would see Chidobe Awuzie/Budda Baker and an edge rusher early and then you could nab Jones in the 3rd (and I would probably just do it with the first choice). Then, by week 8, I have a slot that has been hammering away all season and an edge that can step in and give me minutes as we roll towards the playoffs. I'd take that right now.

    As for Shaquill Griffin, I think he is a solid height/weight/speed guy that could develop nicely into a quality NFL player, potentially a starter. He could have easily attended college at a Power-5 school but stayed at UCF because they offered his brother, who was one of the top tacklers for them this season. His brother did not get a ton of offers because he only has one hand. Good kid. Athletic. Needs coaching bad.

    Myrick is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Great speed. Small. He is only 5095. So, you would think he could move inside, horrible in zones, stiff hipped for a smaller guy, doesn't open and run well, needs that speed to recover. He needs to stay outside where the routes are not breaking in two directions, but his size is such an issue. I just don't quite know how to use him. I mean, ideally, a smaller corner like that is loose and quick, can change directions and run with most receivers, so you can bounce them inside, but not Myrick. He moves like a big corner, but he can get pushed around. I just think there are better players out there, might be more unpolished, but they are better athletes with bigger upside.

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  2. #342
    Yeah, second would be tough to take Jones this year as we have needs and hoping you fill them with a later pick might bite you back.

    I'd be cool going as high as our comp pick on Griffin depending on how the draft went but would prefer him round 4. Round 5 imo would be a steal.

    Jalen Myrick is probably going to be a 6th or 7th round pick that will at the very least give you nice depth but I would not be surprised 2-3 years from now if he wasn't starting. I agree he's a little stiff but he's gritty and not afraid to mix it up with the receiver.

  3. #343
    Quote Originally Posted by TMC View Post
    And, I'm not one to draft a QB wondering if my franchise is leaving. I am fine with going with Landry Jones a season, taking my beating, and drafting in the top 10.
    Ben's leaving, it's just a matter of how soon. If the Patriots can draft Garrapolo in the 2nd three years ago, I think the Steelers can draft a QB in the 2nd (or 1st) this year. And the pick might pay off even before Ben leaves.

  4. #344
    Quote Originally Posted by Troglodyte View Post
    Ben's leaving, it's just a matter of how soon. If the Patriots can draft Garrapolo in the 2nd three years ago, I think the Steelers can draft a QB in the 2nd (or 1st) this year. And the pick might pay off even before Ben leaves.
    I don't think it is about what round to draft one, I think it is about what they view as a franchise QB. And if none of them early are viewed as that, then they shouldn't pick one.

    I do they they look at value and won't fall into that trap.

    In a weak class you don't want to Troy Edwards yourself a QB.
    in order to shine a light so bright, darkness must be present

  5. #345
    Quote Originally Posted by Troglodyte View Post
    Ben's leaving, it's just a matter of how soon. If the Patriots can draft Garrapolo in the 2nd three years ago, I think the Steelers can draft a QB in the 2nd (or 1st) this year. And the pick might pay off even before Ben leaves.
    How do we even know Garrapolo is that good? Just because Cleveland loves him? That's not a reason.

    Most of these "brilliant QB's" Bellichick has drafted and got ransoms for in trades haven't been that great. So why is Garrapolo the second coming of Brady all of a sudden?

    You stack your board and move on. The only guy in this class I would draft at #30 is Trabinski. The only guy at pick #62 is Watson. The only guy at pick #94 is Kizer (and even I'm not sure of that). The only guys in round 4 would be Kaaya and Mahomes and maybe Davis.

    Will any of that happen? I doubt it. So you move on. Will the Steelers stack their board like me? Maybe, maybe not. We will see.

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  6. #346
    Quote Originally Posted by slashsteel View Post
    I don't think it is about what round to draft one, I think it is about what they view as a franchise QB. And if none of them early are viewed as that, then they shouldn't pick one.

    I do they they look at value and won't fall into that trap.

    In a weak class you don't want to Troy Edwards yourself a QB.
    If Brady, Rogers, Wilson and Bridgewater had been high first round picks, I'd more easily agree with that

  7. #347
    Quote Originally Posted by deljzc View Post
    How do we even know Garrapolo is that good? Just because Cleveland loves him? That's not a reason.
    .
    What does that have to do with anything? The Steelers won't be drafting Garrapolo. The point is, it didn't keep the Pats from winning a lowB repuS.

  8. #348
    Quote Originally Posted by Troglodyte View Post
    Ben's leaving, it's just a matter of how soon. If the Patriots can draft Garrapolo in the 2nd three years ago, I think the Steelers can draft a QB in the 2nd (or 1st) this year. And the pick might pay off even before Ben leaves.
    And that is fine for you to think that. I do not agree. I went back and took a look at every QB draft since 2000 and while there were some quality QBs taken outside the first round, I found that those quality players usually come in drafts where there is talent at the top, meaning either QBs taken #1 overall or there are several quality prospects taken in the first round. Here is what I found....

    In 2000, the infamous Tom Brady draft, Tom Brady and Marc Bulger were taken in the 6th round, both ended up with better careers than any other QB in the draft, including first round pick Chad Pennington. It is the single anomaly in the trends.
    In 2001, Drew Brees was taken 32nd overall, which was at the top of the 2nd round, Mike Vick was the only 1st round QB taken #1 overall. The Texans came into the league the following season giving 32 teams.
    In 2002, David Carr was taken #1 and Joey Harrington #3, Josh McCown and David Garrard were taken in the 3rd/4th and both started over 60 games.
    In 2003, the best QB taken outside the first round was Chris Simms.
    In 2004, the Eli, Ben, Rivers draft, Matt Schaub was taken in the 3rd and he started 92 games.
    In 2005, this was the Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell (all first round) draft, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, and Ryan Fitzpatrick were drafted in the 4th, 7th, 7th.
    In 2006, Vince Young and Jay Cutler were the only QBs to start more than 35 games. Both taken in the first.
    In 2007, no QB started more than 33 games.
    In 2008, Matt Ryan and Flacco were taken in the first, Chad Henne was the best QB taken after that (2nd round) and he started 52 games. Ryan was taken 3rd overall, no #1 QB in the draft.
    In 2009, no QB started taken outside the first started more than 10 games.
    In 2010, Sam Bradford was drafted #1 overall, no QB taken after him started more than Colt McCoy's 25 games.
    In 2011, four QBs went in the first with Cam Newton leading the way (#1 overall), it produced Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett, and Tyrod Taylor.
    In 2012, Andrew Luck draft, RGIII, also produced Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and there was also Nick Foles and Brock Osweiler.
    In 2013, No QB started more than 30 games, top QB was EJ Manuel. Geno Smith has the most starts. Mike Glennon is 2nd.
    In 2014, this draft produced Derek Carr in the 2nd, also had Teddy Bridgewater at #32. This is the draft Garoppolo was taken and Blake Bortles as the top QB pick at #3 with 3 first round QBs. Also had Tom Savage, Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron, and Zack Mettenberger. So, pretty decent draft overall.
    In 2015, Winston and Mariota went 1/2. Trevor Siemian went in the 7th. Other than that, nothing.
    In 2016, The Dak Prescott draft. It also had Connor Cook, Cody Kessler, Jacoby Brissett, and Christian Hackenberg taken outside the first. It had QBs go 1/2 and 3 go in the first round.

    So, this leads me to believe this, if you desire to find a QB outside of the first round, it has to be a draft that has a strong group near the top, potentially QBs that go 1/2 in the first OR 3/4 QBs drafted in the first round that forces talented QBs down into the later rounds. And, the drafts show that there are good years and horrific years. If people feel this is a strong QB draft and there is quality at the top end that allows for talent to be found in the middle or later rounds, okay.

    I don't share that opinion. Right now, people think there is a possibility that the top QB does not go inside the top 2 and the 3rd best QB might not even go in the first round....that isn't a strong QB draft. I get the gamble of drafting a QB. I'd rather do it in a draft that has blackjack odds than in one where it is roulette. This is roulette.

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  9. #349
    Quote Originally Posted by Troglodyte View Post
    If Brady, Rogers, Wilson and Bridgewater had been high first round picks, I'd more easily agree with that
    Two of those four were first round picks.

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  10. #350
    Quote Originally Posted by TMC View Post
    Two of those four were first round picks.
    But not high 1st round picks. The Steelers could draft the first QB this year and he could turn out to be the next Rodgers or Bridgewater. I don't see how the QB class at the top could have any causal relationship with QBs drafted later on which seems to be what you are suggesting.

  11. #351
    Quote Originally Posted by Troglodyte View Post
    But not high 1st round picks. The Steelers could draft the first QB this year and he could turn out to be the next Rodgers or Bridgewater. I don't see how the QB class at the top could have any causal relationship with QBs drafted later on which seems to be what you are suggesting.
    Why wouldn't it? In every draft, there are QB needy teams. Every draft. In drafts with elite talent at the top, teams draft them, and for each team drafting a QB, it eliminates the need for them to draft one in the consecutive rounds. In essence, it reduces the number of teams that will draft QBs. In fact, in QB rich drafts, better talent can be pushed down because the needy teams are filling their need early and those later QBs are usually being drafted solely on merit.

    But, in drafts that are weaker, lesser talent will be taken higher because those QB needy teams have to gamble on players that might not go as high based solely on merit. If this draft had Goff, Wentz, Paxton, etc in it, would Trubisky, Watson, and Kizer even be considered first round QBs? Would any of them be drafted ahead of the top three from last year? It is very unlikely. So, in a draft that is stronger at the top, those players would almost always slide into rounds where their talent actually matched the area where they are selected.

    The strength of a draft class has everything to do with how talent is distributed throughout a draft. It is very similar to the OL class this year, just read where one writer stated that teams might draft the top 3 OTs and top OG much higher than they should because of the drop off behind that group. They are afraid if they don't get their player early, they won't get a quality player. Probably still won't stop them from drafting a guy later if the need is still there, but strength of position plays a great part.

    As for the first QB taken this year being equal to Bridgewater or Rodgers, in both cases, three QBs went in the first round. Not elite, but fairly strong draft classes. Alex Smith went #1 overall. Rodgers went 24th, Jason Campbell went 25th. That draft contained Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Derek Anderson. So, while the QB taken first this year could, maybe be Rodgers, they could also be Campbell. It should also be noted that the Packers did not NEED Rodgers, they had Farve, who played several more seasons. They drafted value. In the Bridgewater draft, he was the 3rd QB taken, shortly after Johnny Manzeil. Blake Bortles went first. Derek Carr went right after him, then Garopolo. Draft also had Tom Savage, Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, and Tajh Boyd. Again, while it is easy to point towards Bridgewater or Carr, could be Logan Thomas or Manziel just as easily. In fact, statistics show, it is more likely.

    This isn't a great QB draft. One of the reasons why teams are flying these QBs around the country is so they can try to find one worth taking a risk on. No clear cut #1 QB. No clear number of guys expected to go in the first. Could see none, might see 1 or 2, could go as many as 5. Why? Teams are desperate. I just hope we are not one of them.

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  12. #352
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    Get a pass rusher at 32 and based on the quality and depth left at the bottom if rnd 2 Mahomes could be in play, or Webb, with our Comp pick someone like Kaaya could be im play. Right now I am concerned with how pass rushers Mccinley and Charlton could be napped in the middle as I think the Saints will take Charlton to play Opposite of Jordan in a effort to have a penetrating 3-4, Mccinley I see the Colts possibly taking if they don't go RB, they are a org that for ever have neglected the D till the latter half to add weapons for the O, and yes Gore is on his last tire, I am surprised they haven't made push for AP.
    If Taco, Mckinley are gone, and somehow Reddick falls, I jump on him as he can do everything if not I really think hard between Harris and Cunningham, harris is a speed rusher but to start lacks the power to bullrush, Cunningham is a guy who has good size and will make plays all over blast the run, drop back , a complete 3 down LB
    round 1 Cunningham
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  13. #353
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troglodyte View Post
    But not high 1st round picks. The Steelers could draft the first QB this year and he could turn out to be the next Rodgers or Bridgewater. I don't see how the QB class at the top could have any causal relationship with QBs drafted later on which seems to be what you are suggesting.
    These guys would be 2-3 round picks if there were any high end talented QBs coming out.
    RIP CK

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  14. #354
    Quote Originally Posted by TMC View Post
    Why wouldn't it? In every draft, there are QB needy teams. Every draft. In drafts with elite talent at the top, teams draft them, and for each team drafting a QB, it eliminates the need for them to draft one in the consecutive rounds. In essence, it reduces the number of teams that will draft QBs. In fact, in QB rich drafts, better talent can be pushed down because the needy teams are filling their need early and those later QBs are usually being drafted solely on merit.

    But, in drafts that are weaker, lesser talent will be taken higher because those QB needy teams have to gamble on players that might not go as high based solely on merit. If this draft had Goff, Wentz, Paxton, etc in it, would Trubisky, Watson, and Kizer even be considered first round QBs? Would any of them be drafted ahead of the top three from last year? It is very unlikely. So, in a draft that is stronger at the top, those players would almost always slide into rounds where their talent actually matched the area where they are selected.

    The strength of a draft class has everything to do with how talent is distributed throughout a draft. It is very similar to the OL class this year, just read where one writer stated that teams might draft the top 3 OTs and top OG much higher than they should because of the drop off behind that group. They are afraid if they don't get their player early, they won't get a quality player. Probably still won't stop them from drafting a guy later if the need is still there, but strength of position plays a great part.

    As for the first QB taken this year being equal to Bridgewater or Rodgers, in both cases, three QBs went in the first round. Not elite, but fairly strong draft classes. Alex Smith went #1 overall. Rodgers went 24th, Jason Campbell went 25th. That draft contained Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Derek Anderson. So, while the QB taken first this year could, maybe be Rodgers, they could also be Campbell. It should also be noted that the Packers did not NEED Rodgers, they had Farve, who played several more seasons. They drafted value. In the Bridgewater draft, he was the 3rd QB taken, shortly after Johnny Manzeil. Blake Bortles went first. Derek Carr went right after him, then Garopolo. Draft also had Tom Savage, Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, and Tajh Boyd. Again, while it is easy to point towards Bridgewater or Carr, could be Logan Thomas or Manziel just as easily. In fact, statistics show, it is more likely.

    This isn't a great QB draft. One of the reasons why teams are flying these QBs around the country is so they can try to find one worth taking a risk on. No clear cut #1 QB. No clear number of guys expected to go in the first. Could see none, might see 1 or 2, could go as many as 5. Why? Teams are desperate. I just hope we are not one of them.
    But the QB position isnt just another position of potential need. You're right that in every draft there are QB needy and desperate teams... like 25 or more of them... either they know they don't have a franchise QB or like the Steelers, have one with a rapidly approaching expiration date. I don't think the Redskins would have reached for Kirk Cousins if RG3 hadn't existed making him a high first round pick. They took both knowing that Pedigree is often overrated, projections are often just wrong and QB is critical.

    It sounds like you're convinced no QB in this draft taken in the late 1st round or later will ever amount to much. I hope the Steelers don't pass on a Marino or Brees for even a pro-bowler at any other position.

  15. #355
    I think del and I showed, in another thread, from profootballrefence.com, that most QBs with decent AVs were drafted in rounds 1 or 2. Maybe it went to 3rd round, but I don't think so.

  16. #356
    Here is the article again from Football Outsiders on QB's drafted since 1994.

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...tudy-1994-2016

    They have since added another article on undrafted QB's (since Romo retired):

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...l-quarterbacks

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  17. #357
    Quote Originally Posted by Troglodyte View Post
    But the QB position isnt just another position of potential need. You're right that in every draft there are QB needy and desperate teams... like 25 or more of them... either they know they don't have a franchise QB or like the Steelers, have one with a rapidly approaching expiration date. I don't think the Redskins would have reached for Kirk Cousins if RG3 hadn't existed making him a high first round pick. They took both knowing that Pedigree is often overrated, projections are often just wrong and QB is critical.

    It sounds like you're convinced no QB in this draft taken in the late 1st round or later will ever amount to much. I hope the Steelers don't pass on a Marino or Brees for even a pro-bowler at any other position.
    And if the Steelers feel there is such a player you will see them draft them. If available.

    Doesn't change manys views on this being a weak QB draft.

    BPA is the approach

    and how it should be

    and if that approach doesn't bring in a QB

    it is what it is
    in order to shine a light so bright, darkness must be present

  18. #358
    Quote Originally Posted by Troglodyte View Post
    But the QB position isnt just another position of potential need. You're right that in every draft there are QB needy and desperate teams... like 25 or more of them... either they know they don't have a franchise QB or like the Steelers, have one with a rapidly approaching expiration date. I don't think the Redskins would have reached for Kirk Cousins if RG3 hadn't existed making him a high first round pick. They took both knowing that Pedigree is often overrated, projections are often just wrong and QB is critical.

    It sounds like you're convinced no QB in this draft taken in the late 1st round or later will ever amount to much. I hope the Steelers don't pass on a Marino or Brees for even a pro-bowler at any other position.
    The Redskins did not reach for Kirk Cousins. Here are the draft rankings for QBs from nfl.com for that draft:
    http://www.nfl.com/draft/2012/tracke...dt-by-position

    Cousins was rated the 6th best QB in that draft behind Luck, RGIII, Tannehill, Weeden, and Osweiler. He was considered a 2nd-3rd round prospect. Yet, he wasn't taken in the 2nd. He was not even taken in the 3rd. Russell Wilson went ahead of him as did Nick Foles. He fell to the 4th round where the Redskins picked him. They drafted value, not need with Cousins. In fact, they had filled their need with the 2nd overall pick in the draft. If the Redskins had not taken RGIII in the first, odds are they would have chosen Cousins much higher.

    It is funny you state there are 25 QB needy teams and yet, every draft, about a dozen QBs are taken and yet, every draft, still 25 QB needy teams. You would think if finding starting quality QBs outside the top 50 picks were easy and developing those guys happened, it would be much less than 25 QB needy teams. Yet, teams fail WAY more than they succeed with those QB decisions and the majority of the starting QBs come from selections made in the first round.

    It just doesn't happen like that. The Skins had just drafted their franchise QB, had scouted Cousins, and he fell in their lap in the 4th. They took value. Just like Dallas did last year with Prescott. They thought he was talented and spent a 4th on him.

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  19. #359
    I'll also add this, are we looking to put players around Ben to win now or is his career over? If we are drafting a QB in the top 64 picks, to me, that is stating we are more worried about preparing for life after Ben than we are winning with him. If that is the case, I'm not so sure why everyone is sweating him retiring. Might as well let him go, draft position players, start Landry Jones, and be picking in the top 15 next year. Draft your QB next season, fill out the roster with the remaining selections, have Ben free up more cap space, and build around your rookie QB that was drafted in a better QB draft with a higher selection which should equal a better player. Either we are trying to put another ring on Ben's finger or we he is done. I really don't want to spend draft picks trying to hedge my bets on both scenarios.

    As I have stated before, Ben just turned 35. He has 2 more seasons left on his contract after this year. His yearly salary in each season is $12M with a $5M roster bonus each season, so that is $17M per season. So, if he retires, he leaves $17M on the table each year. And, because of the Barry Sanders rule, if he fails to play out his contract, the Steelers can go after the amount of pro-rated signing bonus for those two seasons, which is $6.2M per season. In essence, if Ben retires after the 2017 season, he forfeits $34M in salary/bonus and could be asked to return $12.4M for a total lost compensation of $46.4M. Do you really think he is leaving that on the table? If he retires after the 2018 seasons, he gives up $17M in salary and could be asked to return $6.2M in bonus money for a total of $23.2M in lost compensation.

    I'm not sure how many numbers are to the right of the 6 zeros in Ben's bank account, but when you start slicing of tens of millions of dollars from that number, it doesn't look so good. And, I don't see him as a guy that look to stick in the booth after his career. So, he better get his while he can. I am almost certain Ben plays out this contract. He could retire when it is over, but he sees this one through. And, if the Steelers draft well this year, fill out the defense where this team has a chance to win a lowB repuS or DOES win a lowB repuS between now and the end of his contract, don't be surprised to see him add additional years to see if they can continue to win.
    Last edited by TMC; 04-10-2017 at 06:44 AM.

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  20. #360
    Quote Originally Posted by TMC View Post
    I'll also add this, are we looking to put players around Ben to win now or is his career over? If we are drafting a QB in the top 64 picks, to me, that is stating we are more worried about preparing for life after Ben than we are winning with him. If that is the case, I'm not so sure why everyone is sweating him retiring. Might as well let him go, draft position players, start Landry Jones, and be picking in the top 15 next year. Draft your QB next season, fill out the roster with the remaining selections, have Ben free up more cap space, and build around your rookie QB that was drafted in a better QB draft with a higher selection which should equal a better player. Either we are trying to put another ring on Ben's finger or we he is done. I really don't want to spend draft picks trying to hedge my bets on both scenarios.

    As I have stated before, Ben just turned 35. He has 2 more seasons left on his contract after this year. His yearly salary in each season is $12M with a $5M roster bonus each season, so that is $17M per season. So, if he retires, he leaves $17M on the table each year. And, because of the Barry Sanders rule, if he fails to play out his contract, the Steelers can go after the amount of pro-rated signing bonus for those two seasons, which is $6.2M per season. In essence, if Ben retires after the 2017 season, he forfeits $34M in salary/bonus and could be asked to return $12.4M for a total lost compensation of $46.4M. Do you really think he is leaving that on the table? If he retires after the 2018 seasons, he gives up $17M in salary and could be asked to return $6.2M in bonus money for a total of $23.2M in lost compensation.

    I'm not sure how many numbers are to the right of the 6 zeros in Ben's bank account, but when you start slicing of tens of millions of dollars from that number, it doesn't look so good. And, I don't see him as a guy that look to stick in the booth after his career. So, he better get his while he can. I am almost certain Ben plays out this contract. He could retire when it is over, but he sees this one through. And, if the Steelers draft well this year, fill out the defense where this team has a chance to win a lowB repuS or DOES win a lowB repuS between now and the end of his contract, don't be surprised to see him add additional years to see if they can continue to win.
    The Steelers have spent the past decade putting players around Ben, maybe one more will put them over the Pats, maybe it will be in vein. If you had the choice of one more Championship or a 12-15 year franchise successor to Ben, which would you take? I suspect the people who remember the 12-15 years post-Bradshaw may answer differently than those who do not.

    I don't think Ben is Favre. I don't think he's still playing on opening day 2019.

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