By: Michael Stiffler, @Stiffeezy_ on Twitter
SteelerNation.com
Last week was not only a perfect week for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but my picks were also a perfect 3-0. I love the board this week for the Pittsburgh Steelers versus Denver Broncos game. Based on the action we saw last week, I think this week will bring the same fortune. As always, lines are brought to you via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change when and wherever you do your betting.
Let’s get started!
Spread: Pittsburgh -7 (Opened at Pittsburgh -5.5)
A lot of love has come the Steelers way after last week’s performance. The defense was able to hold Saquon Barkley to SIX yards rushing, Ben Roethlisberger was able to shake off the early rust and throw for three touchdowns. It is no surprise the Steelers are getting a lot of the action this week. The Broncos on the other hand struggled to put up points in last week’s loss versus the Tennessee Titans that resulted in a 16-14 game. If it wasn’t for the Titans kicking struggles (1/4 on FG, 1/2 on XP) the game could have looked very different.
The Steelers will unveil a new right side of the offensive line with David DeCastro and Stefen Wisniewski out this week and Zach Banner heading to the IR. Kevin Dotson and Chukwuma Okorafor will get the start and for them their task won’t be as tall as the Broncos are without Von Miller for the rest of the season. I still expect Denver’s defensive head coach Vic Fangio to attack that right side early and often, but with established starters on the left side, this will give Maurkice Pouncey the flexibility to help out the new faces. Denver’s secondary also lost a huge cog with cornerback AJ Bouye heading to the IR as well. I expect the Steelers will attack new starter Davontae Harris often to see how he will handle himself.
While all eyes will be on the young passing attack of the Broncos versus the proven Steelers secondary, the Broncos will live and die in the trenches (poor Drew Lock). The Steelers were able to stifle the New York Giants rushing attack making them one dimensional and when the Giants were forced to pass, the Steelers were able to make it a living hell. The Broncos will need Garett Bolles (elbow) and company ready or else Lock will see the same misfortune as Daniel Jones.
Trends to Consider: Home Team 9-7 ATS, Favorites 9-7 ATS, West Coast teams traveling East 3-0 ATS.
Stiffler’s Pick: Pittsburgh -7 (Very Confident)
Total: Over/Under 40.5 (Opened at 43)
Overs went 9-7 last week, with both teams in action going under. The line has drastically gone down since opening at 43, but I am going to have a mindset that is going against the grain. I think the Steelers are going to explode this week. Last week’s early rust was expected with Roethlisberger returning from injury as well as no preseason action. I think Roethlisberger and company will pick up where they left off and get the ball moving. The Steelers have too much fire power not to put up points even with two new starters on the offensive line.
The Broncos have their own youth movement at their skill positions with Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, Cortland Sutton, and Noah Fant. All of these guys have game breaking ability and I wouldn’t doubt the idea they could break a big one if the Steelers defense has a mental miscue like last week. Their big disadvantage is up front, but if the game gets out of hand early, late backdoor points will help cover.
Stiffler’s Pick: Over 40.5 (NOT Confident)
1st Half Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5
I think the Steelers hold the advantage in all three phases of the game. Denver is still a young team offensively trying to get everything going. They will start the game with a time zone disadvantage as they travel east for a 1:00PM start. The Steelers defense should keep Lock and company on their toes as they try to figure out the best way to attack this star studded defense. Things just do not line up well for the Broncos. The Steelers should have the lead heading into half.
Stiffler’s Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5 (Very Confident)
Feel free to follow, fade, or criticize all picks. I wish you good fortune in your bets to come.
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