By: Michael Stiffler, @Stiffeezy_ on Twitter
SteelerNation.com
If you followed my picks from Week 7, you would have gone 3-0 (13-5 YTD). This week the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will be battling it out for 1st place in the AFC North and the AFC. This week is going to be tough to be on the right side of the spread. As always, lines are brought to you via FanDuel Sportsbook. *Lines may change when and wherever you do your betting.
Let’s get started!
Spread: Baltimore -4.5 (Opened at Baltimore -5.5)
It looks like the books got this spread about dead right given the circumstances. The Ravens are the home team coming off a bye week and the Steelers just had to battle it out against Derrick Henry and company. The Ravens have been one of the best when coming off a bye week since John Harbaugh has become head coach boasting a 10-2 record straight up (9-3 against the spread). Not only is he successful off a bye, the Ravens are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games versus the Steelers. While this favors the Ravens, they haven't been as successful this season against the spread (3-2-1) while the Steelers have been great against the spread (5-1).
Both teams come into this game without a huge component for this matchup. The Ravens will likely be without running back Mark Ingram who is a tone setter for their running game. It will be interesting to see how Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and JK Dobbins will be able to fill the void of his tough running style. While Jackson is known for his legs, his passing efforts haven't been up to par with his MVP season. In his last 4 games, he has failed to reach the 200-yard mark through the air and completing 56.6% of his passes.
While Jackson will be the key for the Ravens, the Steelers will look to Robert Spillane and company to fill the void of Devin Bush who was key to slowing down Jackson in their first matchup of 2019. If the Steelers can limit the success of the Ravens running game, it could be a long day for the Ravens offense.
With all things being said, this has the feel of a field goal game either way. Take the points in a close matchup.
Stiffler’s Pick: Pittsburgh +4.5 (Confident)
Total: Over/Under 46.5 (Opened at 49)
This is a toss up. Both offenses come into the game averaging 30 points per game each with their own flavor. While the Ravens have the top rushing attack in the NFL, the Steelers come in with a more balanced effort. The only issue for both offenses is they face defenses who have been a nightmare for opposing offenses. Both defenses rank in the top 10 for yards allowed per game, points per game, and sacks.
With all that said, I lean the over. The rules of the game today favor the offense. I think each defense can be opportunistic, whether that leads to a defensive touchdown or just a turnover with a short field, it will lead to points. Jackson has game breaking ability with his legs and the Steelers possess so many weapons offensively that someone should be open.
Stiffler’s Pick: Over 46.5 (Lean)
1st Half Spread: Baltimore -2.5
The advantage here is the Ravens have had an extra week to scout the Steelers. They were able to see how Spillane would play in Bush's absence. Also, Harbaugh is just an overall great coach who deserves that type of respect. This is not a slight at head coach Mike Tomlin as he came out last week firing on all cylinders in the first half. I think the extra time and rest will allow the Ravens to get off to an early lead at half.
Stiffler’s Pick: Baltimore -2.5 (Confident)
Feel free to follow, fade, or criticize all picks. I wish you good fortune on your bets to come.
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