PWFA's Credibility Problem: Why T.J. Watt is Defensive Player of the Year (Analysis)
Analysis

PWFA's Credibility Problem: Why T.J. Watt is Defensive Player of the Year

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Pittsburgh Steelers LB T.J. Watt is the best defensive player in football and the 3x Pro Bowl/2x All-Pro has established his place among the league's elite as he is carving out a serious name for himself in the lore of a defense filled with legends and Hall of Famers.

In 2020, Watt became just the 3rd player in the last 15 years to achieve the “Triple Crown” by leading the NFL in sacks (15), tackles for loss (23) and QB hits (41), joining Aaron Donald (2018) and J.J. Watt (2015/2012). Donald, considered the top competition for Watt for Defensive Player of the Year, finished in a tie for 2nd in sacks (13.5), tie for 6th in tackles for loss (14) and tie for 5th in QB hits (27).

Watt's 2020 highlights are on display on the SteelerNation YouTube channel to watch:

 

The gold standard for Defensive MVP is the Associated Press NFL Defensive Player of the Year, which is presented at the annual NFL honors ceremony the day before the Super Bowl. The winner is decided by a nationwide panel of 50 media members who regularly cover the league.

In the wake of the announcement of PFWA Defensive Player of the Year Award going to the star DT of the Los Angeles Rams, Steeler Nation is not buying it and stands behind 2020 NFL on Fox Awards Defensive Player of the Year winner, T.J. Watt. The PFWA has a history that back 50+ years and which has evolved to attain a degree of status while formerly prestigious entities that issued similar awards such as UPI are now defunct.

Nonetheless, the integrity of the PFWA process in not above reproach. The lack of transparency in voting and ballot placement is questionable and the standards to meet the requirements of the Association writers/voters is minimal. Any blogger or Monday Morning Quarterback that completes the application and pays annual dues may be selected to join -- giving the feel that it's one step removed from a MLM scheme. However, serious bias questions are inherent, given that in the 50 years of the award, the winner has deviated from the winner of the AP DPOY on only 10 occasions. Curiously enough, twice the PFWA differed on Steelers who were recognized DPOY.

Per the Rams-Based Turf Show Times SB Nation site, an excerpt from a post celebrating Donald tried to slide one past SteelerNation:

Dating back to Deion Sanders winning the award in 1994, the AP Defensive Player of the Year and the PFWA Defensive Player of the Year winners have been the same in 23 of the last 26 years. The only exceptions being when Troy Polamalu won the AP award over Clay Matthews in 2010, when Luke Kuechly won the 2013 award over Robert Quinn (when he was with the Rams), and in 2017 when Donald won the award over Calais Campbell.

What is most interesting is how they stopped the data at 1994: Sorry TST, but that don't fly with FSF. In 1993, Rod Woodson won AP DPOY over Bruce Smith and in 1991 Pat Swilling won the award over Reggie White. The attempt to go back as far as you can to utilize selective data in a meagre attempt to strengthen your position is only slightly less shady than stopping short of it being the year that another Steeler won it. The sad fact is that jealousy over the number of Steelers who have won DPOY (7x): Joe Greene (2x), Mel Blount, Jack Lambert, Rod Woodson, Troy Polamalu and James Harrison is akin to the bias that seek to prevent deserving Steelers from entering the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

AN OPEN CHALLENGE

This proud Steeler Nation Yinzer is issuing an open invitation to any of the hundreds of dues carrying members of the PFWA to the debate stage to defend, we have the capability to set it up easily with the SN Podcast.

In the meantime, let’s start with official PFWA release behind selecting Donald:

Donald started all 16 games and had 45 total tackles (27 solo), 14 tackles for loss, a team leading 13.5 sacks for minus-86 yards, 26 quarterback hits, four forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.  He had 10 games with at least one-half sack and eight contests with one sack or more.  Donald’s career-high four-sack game for minus-23 yards in Week 5 earned him NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors.   He was selected to PFWA’s 2020 All-NFL and All-NFC teams.

Now, take that same PFWA release an insert Watt's performance.

Watt started 15/15 games and had 53 total tackles (43 solo) 23 tackles for loss, a league leading 15 sacks for minus-126 yards, 41 quarterback hits, two forced fumbles and one interception. He had 11 games with at least one-half sack and ten contests with one sack or more (and 4 games with two sacks).  Watt’s 2.5 sack game for minus-24 yards in Week 2 earned him AFC Defensive Player of the Week honors.  He was selected to PFWA’s 2020 All-NFL and All-AFC teams.

Watt also outperformed Donald in-furthering the gap between the two:

  • QB Pressures (56/44)
  • QB Hurries (20/15)
  • If there were an actual quantifiable # to measure times being blatantly held -- TJ Watt likely set the record for that in 2020.

For good measure, let's add this to further distinguish with factual credibility:

Watt was twice named AFC Defensive Player of the Month for the months of:

  • September
  • November

The two players who most recently were twice recognized as Defensive Player of the Month in one season went on to win AP DPOY (Donald/J.J. Watt). While December’s winner has yet to be announced, it presents a unique chance to evaluate Watt and Donald performance in December. Beyond analytics and data, there's a unique opportunity to include the intangible element as both the Steelers and Rams faced similar scenarios in they began the month of December in 1st place of their respective divisions as well as how much the Steelers/Rams were relying on Watt/Donald to step up their game to clinch a playoff berth/Division Championship:

T.J. Watt - December performance:

  • 4 Sacks
  • 9 Tackles for Loss
  • 11 QB hits
  • 21 Total Tackles (17 solo)
  • 1 Turnover: Sack/Forced Fumble (Set Steelers up on the 3-yard line for short TD  vs playoff bound Indianapolis Colts)
  • Steelers were AFC North Division Champions, enabling Watt to rest Week 17.

Aaron Donald - December performance:

  • 3.5 Sacks
  • 4 Tackles for Loss
  • 5 QB hits
  • 10 Total Tackles (5 solo)
  • 0 Turnovers Forced (Including a Week 15 loss to the winless New York Jets where Donald had 0 sacks and just 1 tackle)
  • Rams finished 2nd in the NFC West and needed a Week 17 win to secure a playoff berth.

It's not just a no contest, it's a TKO. Watt outperformed Donald in December and it wasn't even close, with a strong case for Watt to be named AFC Defensive Player of the Month for a 3rd time. He certainly stepped up larger when his team was besieged by injuries and he was needed even more.

 

WATT IS NOT A ONE-YEAR WONDER

In his first 4 years, Watt's 49.5 sacks have outpaced all but 2 of the top 10 All-Time leaders in sacks:

  1. Bruce Smith:5 (200)
  2. Reggie White: 70 (198)
  3. Kevin Greene: 30 (160)
  4. Julius Peppers: 40.5 (159.5)
  5. Chris Doleman: 22.5 (150.5)
  6. Michael Strahan: 18 (141.5)
  7. Jason Taylor: 31 (139.5)
  8. Terrell Suggs: 40 (139)
  9. Demarcus Ware: 53.5 (138.5)
  10. Richard Dent: 49 (137.5)/John Randle: 34 (137.5)

  • For those who are curious: Watt's initial 4 years have surpassed Donald (39) sack total

THE "NARRATIVE" THAT DONALD IS THE MOST DOMINANT DEFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE GAME

Aaron Donald won 2017 and 2018 DPOY. While unquestionably 2018 he was dominant and deserving as he achieved the aforementioned "Triple Crown" with 20.5  sacks, 25 TFL and 41 QB Hits, forcing 4 fumbles and 2 fumbles recovered, 59 tackles (41 s0lo).

But how does Donald's 2017 compare with Watt's 2019?

Donald - 2017 (DPOY winner):

  • 11 Sacks
  • 15 TFL
  • 27 QB Hits
  • 5 FF
  • 1 FR
  • 41 Total Tackles (32 solo)
  • 0 - Did not win NFC Defensive Player of the Month
  • Donald didn't lead the league in any category, yet still won the award.

Watt - 2019 (finished 3rd in DPOY Vote):

  • 14.5 Sacks
  • 14 TFL
  • 36 QB Hits
  • 8 FF
  • 4 FR
  • 2 INT
  • 55 Total Tackles (35 solo)
  • AFC Defensive Player of the Month - November 2019
  • Watt led the league  in FF, as he forced an overall astounding 14 Turnovers.

 

While I understand the past year does not reflect on the current season, it certainly sticks a pin it a discussion to explore another time about just how dominant Donald is and if his 2017 season wouldn't have fallen short to the Watt's 2019 for DPOY voting.

And it certainly drives a case for Watt drawing the short end of the 2019 DPOY stick.

 

Do you think T.J. Watt should be recognized as Defensive MVP? If you disagree, prove me wrong! Leave a comment and make sure to subscribe to the channel.

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