By: Michael Stiffler, @Stiffeezy_ on Twitter
SteelerNation.com
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off their first loss of the season and things will not get any easier. This week they travel to Buffalo for a Sunday Night matchup with the Buffalo Bills, who are arguably their toughest opponent of the year. If you followed my picks from Week 13, you would have gone 2-1 last week (23-12-1 YTD). As always, lines are brought to you via FanDuel Sportsbook. *Lines may change when and wherever you do your betting.
Let’s get started!
Spread: Buffalo -1.5 (Opened at Pittsburgh -2.5)
I am honestly surprised the line isn't bigger for the Bills. The Steelers are coming into this game with more question marks than the week before. Their inside linebacker core has taken a substantial hit not only losing Robert Spillane to a knee injury for multiple weeks, but Vince Williams was placed on the COVID-19 list this week as well. A linebacker group that once boasted TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, Devin Bush, and Williams will now look like Watt, Avery Williamson, Marcus Allen, and Alex Highsmith. Williamson and Allen are the biggest question marks as Williamson has only been with the Steelers for a handful of weeks and is still learning the defense, while Allen made the switch from linebacker to safety this season primarily seeing time in sub packages and special teams. Williamson seems to be tasked with wearing the green dot, hopefully we will not see a confused Keith Butler defense like fans were used to pre-2019. I think the game of musical chairs will cause a little too much confusion for the Steelers to hold Josh Allen and company in check on Sunday night. Bills win and cover.
Stiffler’s Pick: Buffalo -1.5 (Confident)
Total: Over/Under 48 (Opened at 47.5)
If the Steelers defense was more intact I would actually lean the under, but with the issues at linebacker stated above give me a great deal of concern. Allen is having his best season to date for the Bills completing nearly 70% of his passes and having a total of 32 touchdowns. Allen's mobility will give the Steelers problems as well as they have struggled at times with mobile quarterbacks. Quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, and Lamar Jackson have been able to provide big plays when escaping the pocket and throwing down the field and the Bills have the weapons to exploit it with Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. On the other side of things, the Bills defense has been very middle of the road. They rank 18th in points per game and 21st in yards per game but they do rank 9th in takeaways per game with 1.6 per game. Hopefully this is an opportunity for Ben Roethlisberger and company to get right offensively and get back to scoring 20+ points a game. They will receive a big boost this week with Maurkice Pouncey and James Conner coming back off the COVID-19 list, which should provide some life to an otherwise dead running game. The receivers and Eric Ebron should come into this game with a big chip on their shoulder as the Steelers have shot to #1 in the NFL in dropped passes with 33, 10 coming in the past two games. This game should hit the over pretty easily in my mind unless the Steelers offensive struggles continue.
Stiffler’s Pick: Over48 (Confident)
1st Half Spread: Buffalo -0.5
On top of the reasons discussed above, with news out of Pittsburgh that they will now travel on gameday worries me. Traveling is taxing on the body no matter how long or short and this could signal another slow start for the Steelers. I am going to keep this short and sweet and say the Bills will be leading at half time.
Stiffler’s Pick: Buffalo -0.5 (Confident)
Feel free to follow, fade, or criticize all picks. I wish you good fortune on your bets to come.
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