Aaron Rodgers’ Pittsburgh Steelers debut is nearly upon us, and if you feel like you have a strong grasp of how Pittsburgh’s offense will look with the three-time MVP under center, you’re either Arthur Smith, Rodgers himself, or you’re lying. Rodgers enters Week 1 with a pretty high ceiling, a pretty low floor, and endless possibilities in between.
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Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers during 2025 training camp in Latrobe, PA.
So, if you’re looking to place a prop bet on Rodgers in Week 1, it might be a bit of a challenge. Still, we have plenty of data at our disposal and have gotten enough hints out of Latrobe to help us make an educated pick. Rodgers’ Week 1 passing yards total is a very intriguing prop bet on the market right now. The total has fluctuated in recent days and currently sits at 203.5 passing yards on most sportsbooks. Props like passing yards totals are also great options on pick’em betting sites like Underdog Fantasy and Dabble which offer 203.5 yards for Rodgers as well.
So, will Rodgers go over 203.5 passing yards in his Steelers debut?
Rodgers entered Week 1 in 2024 with a passing yards over/under of 249.5 yards with the Jets; in ‘23, it was 233.5. For a player who’s averaged over 250 passing yards per game throughout his career — including 229.2 yards per game last year in New York — this year’s Week 1 total seems quite low for Rodgers.
But there might be something to it.
Rodgers may average more than 250 yards per game for his career, but in Week 1 games excluding his early exit in 2023, he posts just over 230 yards per game. In 16 Week 1 matchups, he’s exceeded 203.5 yards just six times. This suggests that Rodgers, like many quarterbacks, doesn’t exactly run on all cylinders in the first game of the season, and that’s even including his storied tenure in Green Bay. There’s plenty more to consider. This is Rodgers’ first game with the Steelers, preseason included, and his first with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Rodgers did well to connect with his pass-catchers soon after signing with the Steelers this offseason and has certainly commanded the respect of other offensive players, but can we really expect him to exceed his past performances in a new system at age 41? Probably not.
How will the Steelers’ backfield affect Rodgers’ passing stats? With Najee Harris out of the picture, it’s newly-extended RB Jaylen Warren getting the most reps. But the Steelers also drafted Kaleb Johnson and signed veteran Kenneth Gainwell, creating a committee approach to the running back position that could eat into Rodgers’ passing attempts, especially in Smith’s run-heavy offense. We haven’t even mentioned arguably the biggest factor prohibiting Rodgers from exceeding 203.5 passing yards: the New York Jets defense.
Jordan Schofield / SteelerNation (X: @JSKO_PHOTO)
The Jets allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game last season, averaging 192.6 yards against per game. For a team that went 5-12 to defend the pass that well is surprising, and with additions like CB Brandon Stephens and DT Harrison Phillips, they could even be a tick better this season. This is also a team with a new head coach, new motivation, and plenty of incentive to stifle their former QB Rodgers’ passing production in Week 1.
Don’t Expect Rodgers to Make it Rain in His Steelers Debut
The verdict? If you’re looking to place a prop bet on Rodgers’ passing yards total, it might be smart to go under the 203.5 number. You can make that pick on the Underdog Fantasy app and pair it with other over/unders for players on other teams — combining it with Justin Fields under 174.5 passing yards, for example, would earn you a payout of 2.7x your wager.
Rodgers may very well have a strong debut for Pittsburgh and will likely have plenty of control over his new offense. But considering his history, the Jets’ ability to defend the pass, and even Mike Tomlin’s tendency to play it safe, Rodgers is likely to stay under the 203.5 passing yards mark, even if the Steelers earn the coveted Week 1 victory.
