Top Steelers Prop Bets for Week 2

Early prop betting lines for Week 2 NFL games took a little extra time to be released on Tuesday, but after the Steelers’ Week 1 win against the Jets came in an unexpected, high-scoring fashion, attempting to bet a spread or total for this Pittsburgh Steelers team may not yet be a wise move. 

We do like the Steelers to win their home opener against the Seahawks on Sunday and possibly cover a 3.5-point spread against DK Metcalf’s old team, and Seattle and Pittsburgh should combine to hit over the total of 39.5. But after a surprising Week 1 on both sides of the ball, it might be wise to wait for trends to emerge before betting spreads or totals on the Steelers.

So, when prop bets found daylight Tuesday afternoon, one pick in particular stood out to us: Aaron Rodgers over 1.5 touchdown passes with +150 odds on BetMGM sportsbook. You can also add this pick to your bet slip on Dabble, one of the top-rated social sportsbooks online right now. We’ve got plenty of reasons why we like the over on Rodgers’ touchdown passes on Sunday, and we’ll get into those in depth below. But one thing to emphasize as you read this article: Again, this is +150 odds, so we’re talking about pretty good plus-money juice on this pick.

First thing’s first: Rodgers threw four touchdown passes in Week 1, he looked comfortable in Arthur Smith’s offense, and he carried the Steelers to a win in a game their defense nearly gave away. For him to follow that performance with a two-touchdown game in Week 2 is more than doable.

Part of Rodgers’ positive outlook, though, factors in the rushing game’s struggles against the Jets. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell combined for 18 rushing attempts and 56 yards and didn’t find the end zone. Nine of Warren’s yards came in the red zone, but his lone attempt inside the five was stuffed for no gain. With rookie Kaleb Johnson having played only two snaps, it doesn’t appear that Pittsburgh has a legitimate touchdown threat near the goalline right now.

They do, however, have four talented tight ends. 

Rodgers called it the best tight end room he’s had in his 21 years, and that may be because of the multiple ways they can beat defenders in the end zone. Jonnu Smith’s pop-pass touchdown reception in Week 1 is the only tape the Seahawks have of this Steeler offense scoring near the goalline, and having to defend against that may open things up for Pat Friermuth or Darnell Washington over the middle.

And on a personal note, with as much praise as Rodgers has showered on Metcalf, don’t you think he wants to get DK a touchdown against the team who traded him?

As for the Seahawks, they allowed two touchdowns to Brock Purdy in their Week 1 loss. Last season, they were especially stout against the run, finishing tied for the third-fewest rushing TDs in the NFL with 11. They allowed 26 passing touchdowns, which put them closer to the middle of the pack. So their defense is more susceptible to passing touchdowns than rushing TDs, and Pittsburgh’s offense is more likely to score via pass than the run.

One Week In, This Doesn’t Look Like the 2024 Aaron Rodgers

Finally, the fact that Rodgers threw two or more touchdown passes in just 10 of 17 games last year shouldn’t excite you. But he only threw four touchdown passes in one game — Week 18 against the Dolphins — and certainly seems to have picked up where he left off. Also, remember: BetMGM is offering this bet at +150 odds, so it carries an implied probability of about 40%. We think Rodgers is more likely than not to throw multiple TD passes, so there’s good value on this bet if you’re interested.

And a quick bonus pick: TE Darnell Washington continues to carry +1000 odds to score a touchdown on most sportsbooks. As much as Rodgers loved him as a target in their “Seven Shots” drill during Training Camp, this could be great value for one of the toughest tight ends to cover one-on-one near the goal line.