December 2, 2024. It was more than 10 months ago, and it was the last time the Cleveland Browns scored more than 17 points. In fact, they’ve averaged just 11.3 points per game in that span. When they visit Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in Week 6 on Sunday, they’ll do so with rookie QB Dillon Gabriel making just his second career start.
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Steelers superstar edge rusher TJ Watt lets out a thunderous roar after delivering a game-changing play against the Cleveland Browns, igniting the crowd and fueling Pittsburgh’s defensive momentum.
You can see where we’re going with this.
We’re taking a look at this week’s Browns-Steelers matchup from a betting perspective, and the best betting apps in Pennsylvania all have similar odds: The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites, with the total points for the game set at 38.5. If you’re a fan of betting on NFL parlays, this game provides an opportunity to build a same-game parlay around a low-scoring game.
Of course, 38.5 points is a pretty low total for an NFL game. With the Steelers entering the game favored by 5.5 points, Vegas is signaling a projected final score in the vicinity of a 21-16 Steelers win. Most betting apps allow you to choose your own total within a selected range, and we’d advise teasing the total up to 42.5, taking the under, and pairing it with a Steelers win to get you right around even odds on sportsbooks like BetMGM or FanDuel.
And it’s not just the Browns’ lack of offense over their past 10 games that has us eyeing a low-scoring game in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers’ defense is getting healthy, likely returning two starters to the field this week in Alex Highsmith and Joey Porter Jr. Jalen Ramsey remains limited in practice, but matching up the three-headed pass-rushing monster of Highsmith, T.J. Watt and rising star Nick Herbig against a rookie quarterback in his second start is a recipe for disaster for Cleveland. The real test will be slowing RB Quinshon Judkins, a stud rookie who’s posted nearly 350 yards across his first four NFL games.
Jason Getz / The Atlanta Journal Constitution
Former Ohio State running back Quinshon Judkins approaches quarterback Will Howard after a big play was made for the Buckeye offense.
While we obviously like the Steelers as a clear favorite to win the game, the Browns’ defense adds an element that should even keep the Steelers point total low in victory. In fact, the Browns have the second-best defense in the NFL this season by yards allowed at 247.8 per game, and they’re first in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at 75.6.
Will the Steelers be able to get anything going in the ground game? Will they be able to keep Aaron Rodgers upright? The answer to both is yes, they can, but scoring will likely be a challenge for Pittsburgh — just not as much as it will be for Cleveland.
It’s also worth noting that Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett tends to show out in games against the Steelers, knowing his perennial Defensive Player of the Year rival T.J. Watt is watching on the other sideline. Garrett has 13 sacks in 14 career games against the Steelers to go with 31 tackles in those contests.
Parlay the Steelers to Win With Under 42.5 Total Points
If you like the pre-game narrative that the Steelers should take care of business and beat the Browns in a low-scoring game, you’ll be able to pair the Steelers moneyline with under 42.5 total points for +100 odds. Looking for some more value? Adding in a player prop bet like Aaron Rodgers over 206.5 passing yards will bring you closer to +300 odds, allowing you to use a parlay odds boost on some betting apps like Hard Rock Bet.
It’s a huge game for the Steelers on Sunday as they look to advance to 4-1 before a quick turnaround to a Thursday Night Football matchup against the Bengals. They shouldn’t be looking ahead to their next opponent, they’re getting healthy, and they now sit in the drivers seat in the AFC North. That’s why we like the Steelers to earn the W in Week 6, and to do so in low-scoring fashion.
