This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the Packers and Steelers in Pittsburgh features two teams in first place in their division and with playoff aspirations. But if you ask fans of either team, none of them would paint quite as rosy a picture.
ESPN
Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger meets with former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers before a home game.
The Steelers are coming off a devastating loss to the Bengals in Week 7 — we don’t need to further rehash what was a brutal Thursday night for Yinzers everywhere.
But interestingly, things haven’t been perfect for the Packers, either. Despite two wins and a tie across their last four contests, the Packers are showing a trend that the Steelers could take advantage of on Sunday. And from a betting perspective, it’s something we can all take advantage of.
For our suggested bet in this game, we recommend choosing a top sportsbook in Pennsylvania that offers this three-leg, same-game parlay:
Steelers +3.5
Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes
Aaron Rodgers 200+ Passing Yards
Total Odds: +204
If there are popular sportsbooks you haven’t yet used, you can peruse this list of the best sportsbook bonuses and even find a sports betting app that will allow you to use a bonus bet or deposit match to wager on this parlay.
So, why do we think this parlay is going to hit on Sunday night?
Over their first three games this season, the vaunted Packers defense allowed just 168 passing yards per game. Over their last three, they’ve allowed 256 per game. They’ve given up plenty of scores through the air in those games, too. Here’s each QB’s performance against Green Bay in their past three games:
Jacoby Brissett (ARI): 279 pass yards, 2 TD
Joe Flacco (CIN): 219 pass yards, 2 TD
Dak Prescott (DAL): 319 pass yards, 3 TD
Can Aaron Rodgers match the production of these QBs against Green Bay? Well, he’s thrown for 200+ yards in five out of six games this season, and he’s thrown two or more TD passes in four of them. Consider also that the Packers’ pass defense struggles haven’t leaked into their run defense; they’re still second in the NFL against the rush this season, and they’ve allowed just three rushing touchdowns compared to 10 through the air. So if the Steelers are going to put pressure on the Packers’ defense, it’s likely to come via the pass.
The other key factor? Motivation.
If you’ve listened to Aaron Rodgers speak at all in his career, you know he holds grudges. So when Mike Tomlin says Rodgers has been “fired up every single week” and that Tomlin imagines “it’s going to be the same” against Rodgers’ former team of 18 years, you know he’s downplaying it. Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer says Rodgers has “a hair across his you-know-what going on” this week, and that feels a bit more believable.
What happens when you get an extra-motivated Aaron Rodgers, a downward trending Packers pass defense, and a Steelers rushing attack that’s under-equipped to outperform their opponent?
At the very least, volume.
Rodgers should get plenty of chances on Sunday, and he’s likely to have success in the air game. So throwing for 200+ yards and throwing two or more touchdown passes looks like a good bet.
The final leg of our parlay: the Steelers to cover a 3.5-point spread as home underdogs.
Why the Steelers Will Cover the Spread on Sunday Night
The Steelers are 23-7-3 against the spread as home underdogs under Mike Tomlin, per Action Network, giving Tomlin the best record ATS of any head coach as a home underdog since 2000. Per Stathead, the Steelers are 9-4 straight up as home underdogs under Tomlin.
The Steelers lost by 4+ points at home just once last year — against the Chiefs on Christmas — and their only loss of 4+ points this season was due to youthful mishaps in an ugly loss to Seattle in Week 2.
Finally, if the Steelers win on Sunday, Aaron Rodgers will become just the fifth QB all-time to have beaten all 32 NFL teams. Even if the Steelers don’t beat the Packers on Sunday night, expect a highly-motivated team to keep it within a field goal at home.
