Aaron Rodgers And DK Metcalf Give Steelers Fans A Big Chance To Make Money

As the Pittsburgh Steelers continue to morph into a new team each week, finding betting angles can be exceedingly challenging. But as they prepare to take on the Dolphins at home on Monday Night Football, we’re following a few trends that might be worth an investment. Here are our favorite prop bets for the Steelers’ Week 15 matchup, with the best odds from a football sportsbook available.

DK Metcalf Over 4.5 Receptions (+115 on theScore Bet)

The Steelers trotted out a new-look receiver corps in Sunday’s win over the Ravens, activating Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the practice squad after trading for Adam Thielen earlier in the week. On its face, the move was made to give Aaron Rodgers a couple savvy veteran options to throw to. But as Sunday’s game unfolded, a bigger picture emerged: With more attention devoted to other pass-catchers, DK Metcalf got more one-on-one opportunities.

\We’ve seen Rodgers force the ball to Metcalf all year long, targeting him practically every time he’s in a one-on-one matchup. Metcalf has five or more receptions in three of his last four games and had seven receptions against Baltimore on a season-high 12 targets. So for his receptions total to be listed at 4.5 with +115 juice on the over is extremely enticing. 

We’ll take the over at theScore Bet, one of the newest Pennsylvania sportsbooks.

Aaron Rodgers Under 31.5 Passing Attempts (-110 on theScore Bet)

The Steelers’ offensive line has been a top-10 unit in the NFL this season, and despite losing Broderick Jones for the season to a neck injury, they had one of their finest games of the year on Sunday. In the victory, however, Jones’ replacement Andrus Peat suffered a concussion and remains questionable for Monday’s game. With Rodgers’ blind-side protection being compromised, will Arthur Smith really ask him to throw his normal allotment of passes?

Pittsburgh rushed for a season-low 34 yards on Sunday, and while “a win’s a win” has never been more true, Tomlin and Smith know this isn’t sustainable. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell combined for just 12 carries — that will not happen on Monday night, and more rushing attempts obviously means fewer passing attempts for the Pittsburgh offense.

What’s more is that Rodgers has exceeded 31.5 passing attempts in only five of his 12 games played this season, meaning oddsmakers project him to throw slightly more against the Dolphins than usual. Is that how you see Monday night playing out? Not us — we’re taking the under.

Over 41.5 (-110 on Multiple Sportsbooks)

Finally, it’s no secret that one of the Steelers’ biggest deficiencies this season has been their time of possession. Per Team Rankings, they rank last in TOP at 26:58 per game, nearly a minute lower than the next team. 

Pittsburgh’s average TOP was cratered particularly by their two worst offensive showings. They possessed the ball for just 22:25 in Week 10 against the Chargers, scoring 10 points. Against the Bills, they had the ball for a putrid 18:01, scoring only seven points. If you exclude those two losses, their games have gone over 41.5 total points nine of 11 games.

That’s quite convenient this week, as the Dolphins, too, rank among the worst teams for time of possession in the NFL at 24th. Knowing that the Dolphins aren’t the capable ball-hoggers that the Chargers or Bills are, we don’t see this turning into a low-scoring affair. With the total set at a modest 41.5 points, we’re taking the over.

Combine All Three Picks for +550 Odds at Hard Rock Bet

We wouldn’t recommend parlaying these three picks, as they’re a bit contradictory — it’ll be harder for Metcalf to catch 5+ passes if Rodgers goes under 31.5 attempts, for example. But if you do, you’ll get the best odds at Hard Rock Bet. They’ll also offer a 30% parlay boost, so a $10 bet would pay out $81.50. 

We’d suggest picking a bet or two that makes the most sense to you, but if you’re feeling lucky, that’s some pretty great value.