The Steelers' 2025 season ended in January. Now it's March, and the team taking the field in September will look completely different. Free agency opens March 9, and for fans who like betting on sports online, the decisions made over the next month will shape betting value for the entire 2026 season. Here are five moves that'll shift the odds.
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Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers during 2025 training camp in Latrobe, PA.
1. Will Aaron Rodgers play another season?
Rodgers is 42 and hasn't said if he'll play another year. If he comes back, the Steelers stay competitive with bookmakers predicting around nine or 10 wins. If he retires, they will scramble to sign Kirk Cousins or Joe Flacco instead, but neither is as good as Rodgers.
Rodgers' return keeps the team's chances stable. His retirement would cause betting odds to drop quickly. This creates early opportunities for bettors before everyone else reacts. Watch for changes to Steelers season win predictions and divisional title odds - they'll move fast once Rodgers announces his decision.
2. Keeping Kenneth Gainwell
Nobody expected Gainwell to be Pittsburgh's best attacking player in 2025, but he ran for 537 yards and made 73 catches. He becomes a free agent on March 11, and his versatility fits the coach's style perfectly. Losing him without a replacement would make the team easier to defend against, especially early in the season.
Gainwell staying keeps the team's scoring predictions realistic. If he leaves and they don't replace him well, betting on lower scores in September starts looking like the smart play. Watch how the team performs against the spread in their first few games.
3. The March 13 Jalen Ramsey deadline
Jalen Ramsey is owed a $2M bonus on March 13, when another $3.5M becomes guaranteed money. The Steelers must decide if they're keeping the 31-year-old defender at his $19.5M salary or releasing him by this date. If he's released before then the Steelers will save all of his 19.5M salary as none of it is currently guaranteed.
Sebastian Foltz / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Steelers safety Jalen Ramsey on the practice field in Latrobe, PA at Steelers Training Camp in the summer of 2025.
Most experts think he'll stay and play his best position. But if he's released without a replacement, the defense gets weaker in tight matches. Defenses that can't finish close games hurt your betting slips. If Ramsey leaves, avoid betting on Pittsburgh to win by specific margins in divisional rivalry matches where games are usually close.
4. Replacing Isaac Seumalo on the offensive line
Seumalo was selected for the Pro Bowl in 2024 and was key to protecting the quarterback. He becomes a free agent on March 11, and if he leaves, the Steelers face a learning curve with his replacement. Keeping the same offensive line matters, especially when facing the division's best pass rushers like Myles Garrett.
A weaker offensive line doesn't show up in preseason hype, but it matters when you're betting on September road matches. Early-season bets on lower scores look better if Seumalo leaves without a quality replacement. Use a betting calculator to work out how this affects your bets.
5. Signing a second wide receiver before the draft
DK Metcalf is under contract, but the Steelers desperately need another quality pass-catcher. Waiting until the April draft is risky when free agency could solve it now. Names like Tyler Lockett or Christian Kirk might be available, and Pittsburgh has the money to spend.
Signing a proven receiver by mid-March transforms the attack overnight and opens up the passing game. If the Steelers add a quality receiver in free agency, their predicted wins and division odds will both jump immediately.
What it means
Free agency isn't just about filling positions - it's about building a team that beats the bookmakers' predictions when the season starts in September. The Steelers have $45M to spend and get this right, but March decisions matter more than April ones.
Rodgers returning, Gainwell staying, Ramsey in his best role, Seumalo re-signed, and a veteran receiver added would create a 10-win team. Miss on two or three of those, then you're looking at 8-9 wins and another fight for a playoff wildcard spot.