The Steelers are not an obvious Super Bowl contender going into 2026, but there may be some value wagers available on the Pittsburgh team. Although a lot of attention will be on 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers, the veteran QB will be working with a new look offense that doesn't have to be much better than 2025 to have a considerable impact.
Jordan Schofield / SteelerNation (X: @JSKO_PHOTO)
Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) during 2025 training camp in Latrobe, PA.
This article will look at futures odds and markets, possible MVP and prop candidates and some statistical analysis of the 2025 season projected onto possible outcomes for week-to-week markets in 2026.
Super Bowl Odds and Division Expectations
If you're a Steelers fan looking for a value bet, you probably won't be surprised that their 2027 Super Bowl odds are not looking good.
At the moment, sportsbooks have them around +5100 to +10000 to win Super Bowl LXI next year, or around 1.96% implied probability.
That is among the lower third of the league in terms of chances, although actually far from the worst. That honor goes to the underdog Arizona Cardinals, who are as long as +75000, or a 0.13% chance to win it all come February 2027. So there's hope for Steelers fans yet.
A more realistic bet with some value could be to win the AFC North, at which they are +550 or around a 15% chance - although most analysts are calling it a two-horse race between the Bengals and the Ravens. If Rodgers can pull out some of his earlier career form for one last hurrah, the Steelers disrupt that party. But don't count on it.
As for the AFC Title, the Steelers are rated around +2400 to +2700, or about a 3.5% chance. So it's hard to see much value in that bet.
The above averages take into account odds at many of the options on this list of top-rated sportsbooks by Covers. Bettors look to these sites to analyze market depth, odds, bonuses and payment options, so they're a good example of the kind of sportsbooks that actual bettors are using right now.
Breakout Stars and Player of the Year Candidates
TJ Watt is the Steelers' best shot at an award winner in 2026 according to sportsbooks. The linebacker has won Defensive Player of the Year before, and he is coming off a Pittsburgh-career-low number of sacks in 2025 - meaning the market could be underrating his potential return to form.
At as long as +2800 or around a 3.45% chance at some sportsbooks, this could be a potential long-shot value bet for Steelers fans who believe Watt still has it in him to bounce back. Just make sure you shop around, because he is slightly more rated by some sportsbooks who have him as short as +1600 or around a 5% chance. This can have a big impact on potential payouts.
As well as Defensive Player of the Year futures, Watt could be a good bet for the over on sacks against teams with weak or rookie QBs, including Pittsburgh's Week 4 opponents, the Cleveland Browns.
Over/Unders and Who Has Space to Improve
On the offensive side, a lot of bettors will be watching Rodgers and the new offensive strategies under McCarthy. However, DK Metcalf had a career-low of 850 receiving yards in 2025 - so if the team can even improve slightly, the over on his points total could deserve your attention.
With Michael Pittman Jr. and Germie Bernard both joining as wide receivers in the offseason, as well as a potentially resurgent Rodgers, Metcalf could have more space and time to get back up to his higher career standard.
Pittsburgh averaged only 207 passing yards per game in 2025, which was ranked 25th of all teams. If that can even be improved on slightly by Rodgers chasing some final glory and a new-look attack, then Metcalf could be one of the prime beneficiaries.
The returning link-up between new head coach Mike McCarthy and his former long-term Green Bay quarterback Rodgers could revitalize the veteran in his final season. Even if Rodgers' own performances stay at a similar level, it's hard to see McCarthy's familiarity with his game not improving the team's organization around him. If he can work well with new recruits like Bernard, this alone could easily improve receiving yards across the team.
The question is, has this potential been priced into Rodgers prop values? His over on passing yards opened at 217.5 while some sportsbooks put the over at 210.5.
This kind of price difference is potentially exploitable, if you feel the offensive improvements under McCarthy will be realized.
In 2025 Rodgers averaged 207.6 - meaning there only needs to be a small improvement for him to be hitting 210 in week one. Which, given his clear motivation for one last shot at glory and the obvious need for a strong start to the season, makes this a bet worth thinking about.
Why the Early Season is Important - Week to Week Matchups
The Steelers have generally been rated by analysts as having a middlingly tough schedule that will be more difficult towards the back end. For Rodgers, who many think may well find himself worn out come the end of the season, that makes the early matches even more important to make an impact.
One interesting conclusion from 2025 data is that Pittsburgh has a solid defense against rushing and is good at pressuring weaker quarterbacks. They allowed 22 points per game across the season, which was middling. On the other hand, they had the sixth most sacks in the league.
Defending against explosive passing, though, was another story. The Steelers were 26th in passing yards allowed per game, not far off dead last. Therefore, sharp bettors would do well to look for week-to-week matchups where the Steelers play against teams with weak or rookie quarterbacks who focus on rushing yards. If you're not above wagering against the Steelers, opponents with elite QBs and explosive passing could still have the tools to exploit this defense.
The Browns in Week 4 will be a key test in this regard, with the Cleveland team widely considered to have the most difficult QB situation in the league.
Which Steelers Bets Offer the Best Value?
Based on the current prices, the strongest Steelers value may be in selective player props rather than long-range team futures.
TJ Watt at prices close to +2800 for Defensive Player of the Year stands out as the most interesting long-shot future, particularly if you expect his 2025 sack total to rebound. Pittsburgh to win the AFC North at around +550 offers more realistic upside than its Super Bowl or AFC Championship prices, but it still depends heavily on Rodgers and the new-look offense outperforming expectations.
For weekly betting, Aaron Rodgers passing-yard overs near 210.5 could offer better value when Pittsburgh faces weaker pass defenses, especially if higher numbers are available elsewhere in the market. TJ Watt sack props may also be worth watching against inexperienced quarterbacks and offensive lines that struggle in pass protection.
The least appealing value appears to be in Pittsburgh's Super Bowl and AFC Championship futures. The payouts are large, but the team would need several uncertain pieces to fall into place. For bettors looking for value rather than simply backing the Steelers, matchup-specific props and carefully chosen award markets currently offer the stronger case.