By: Michael Stiffler, @Stiffeezy_ on Twitter
SteelerNation.com
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a mess. Not only did they miss an opportunity to clinch the AFC North title last week, but they looked like a team that shouldn't be anywhere near the playoffs. This week they have the Indianapolis Colts and if they don't figure things out, it will be a long day. If you followed my picks from Week 15, you would have gone 0-3 last week (25-16-1 YTD). As always, lines are brought to you via FanDuel Sportsbook. *Lines may change when and wherever you do your betting.
Let’s get started!
Spread: Pittsburgh -1 (Opened at Pittsburgh -3)
I just can't pick the Steelers until they show me their offense has found a rhythm. After starting off the first 11 weeks of the season as one of the best teams against the spread, the Steelers are now 0-4 in their last 4 games. The offense has been a huge disappointment, where last week they passed for a putrid 19 yards in the first half. The running game has been continuously criticized as they have now dropped to the second worst in the NFL with 88.9 rush yards per game. This is a far cry from an offense that in the first 11 weeks averaged nearly 30 points a game, where in the last 4 weeks they average 17 points a game and haven't scored over 20 points. The Colts on the other hand come in riding a 3-game winning streak and look to keep pace with the Tennessee Titans for the AFC South crown. Philip Rivers has found his rhythm the last few games throwing for 757 yards and 6 touchdowns without throwing any interceptions. A good reason Rivers has been so successful is running back Jonathan Taylor has shown why the Colts took him with the 41st overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. During the winning streak, Taylor has averaged 131 total yards per game and 1 touchdown. I think the Colts have their identity figured out and that is why they end up winning this game.
Stiffler’s Pick: Indianapolis +1 (Confident)
Total: Over/Under 43 (Opened at 46)
It is no secret the strength of each team is their defense. The defenses will start the game with an upper hand on the offense. The Colts offense will be shorthanded as both starting tackles will miss this matchup. Their replacements will be tasked with blocking TJ Watt and company who lead the NFL with 47 sacks. They will need step up their game as Rivers has been dealing with a turf toe injury that will surely limit his mobility in the pocket. For the Colts defense, they will be facing a unit who has struggled with their identity. While the Colts pass defense ranks in the middle of the pack, they have a knack for the ball with 15 interceptions on the season, ranking 5th in the NFL. They will get plenty of opportunities to get their hands on it as Ben Roethlisberger averages 40 attempts per game. I think this ends up being low scoring with each team struggling to reach 20.
Stiffler’s Pick: Under 43 (Very Confident)
1st Half Spread: Pick
In the past three weeks, the Colts are the 4th best team with 19.3 1st half points a game. The Steelers on the other hand are the 6th worst team with 7 1st half points per game. The Steelers offense has gotten to the point where the first 15 plays being scripted no longer exist. The first 15 plays have been used to find out what exactly will their game plan be. Their drives have become a flip of the coin where 50% of the time it results in a 3 and out. Until Roethlisberger and company show otherwise, I would pick against the Steelers in the first half.
Stiffler’s Pick: Indianapolis (Very Confident)
Feel free to follow, fade, or criticize all picks. I wish you good fortune on your bets to come.
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