By: Michael Stiffler, @Stiffeezy_ on Twitter
SteelerNation.com
Another week, another win for the Pittsburgh Steelers -- even though it wasn't pretty. If you followed my picks from last week you would have gone 2-1 (5-1 YTD) with the only loser being Steelers -7 for the game. This week's matchup is a big one with the 0-2 Houston Texans coming to town looking for their first victory. As always, lines are brought to you via FanDuel Sportsbook. *Lines may change when and wherever you do your betting.
Let’s get started!
Spread: Pittsburgh -4 (Opened at Pittsburgh -6)
I would've loved the Steelers at -6, I like them even more at -4. With the line moving that much, a lot of money must've been wagered on the Texans. Even though they have played the class of the AFC (Kansas City and Baltimore) the Texans roster is not overly impressive to me. Outside of players like Deshaun Watson, JJ Watt, and Laremy Tunsil, their roster doesn't have an overly impressive unit. For example, for how great of a talent Watson is, his offensive line is equally as bad. Right now they rank number one in pressures allowed, which doesn't line up good with the Steelers defense being number one in quarterback pressures. Watson will have his hands full with Bud Dupree, TJ Watt, Cam Heyward, and Stephon Tuitt coming after him as the Steelers are also number one in blitz percentage. This will develop a tall task for the secondary as they try to stop a speedy receiving core of Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, and company.
While the Texans rank as one of the best in the league in pass yards allowed per game game, this is only because they rank as one of the worst in the league with rush yards allowed per game (198.0 ypg). This bodes well for a Steelers offensive line that returns their best player David DeCastro, who has been sidelined the past two weeks with a knee injury. James Conner and Benny Snell, both whom have a 100-yard rushing game under their belt this year, should be able to control the tempo of game.
The Steelers top to bottom have an advantage in all three phases of the game. Although they had a scare versus Jeff Driskel, I expect the Steelers to not let up versus Watson and company given their pedigree. Expect the Steelers to take the lead early and never look back winning by a touchdown or more.
Stiffler’s Pick: Pittsburgh -4 (Very Confident)
Total: Over/Under 46 (Opened at 45)
The Texans have way too much skill to not put up 14+ points. Whether it is Watson on a broken play or their speed at the wide receiver position, they should find the endzone a couple times. The good thing for the Steelers offense, who has scored 26 points in each of the past two games, the Texans defense has allowed 33.5 points per game. With this being the third game for Ben Roethlisberger and company, the offense should be at a good gelling point moving forward. Diontae Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster have both been successful with Roethlisberger early on and the trend should continue versus this shaky Texans defense as Pro Football Focus rated both Texans corners outside the top 40. Kansas City and Baltimore both never had to rely on the passing game because of how successful they were running the ball. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Steelers put up an offensive performance similar to the days of the "Killer Bs".
Stiffler’s Pick: Over 46 (Very Confident)
1st Half Spread: Pittsburgh -3
I'm not going to go into too much more analysis of this game because what I stated above should give you a clear indication of my selection here. Steelers dominate from start to finish. Also, Steelers are 2-0 in first half covers.
Stiffler’s Pick: Pittsburgh -3 (Very Confident)
Feel free to follow, fade, or criticize all picks. I wish you good fortune in your bets to come.
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