The Kansas City Chiefs have looked near unstoppable through the first five weeks of the 2017 NFL season. They may be one of the teams with the least flashy style of play, but they slowly crank teams in, grind them up and spit them out. What is even more impressive than the 5-0 record is the fact that Kansas City has also covered the spread in each of their five games as well.
The Steelers opened as 4-point underdogs for their tilt against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, but the public has already bet that number up to 5 points and I wouldn't be surprised to see it close at 6 or better —you can review some of the best online betting sites to follow odds throughout the week and see where the Steelers land. Even though Las Vegas and offshore outlets are favoring the Chiefs, the Steelers never lay down and die easily … and to be perfectly honest with you, if you've ever heard the term, 'qualified dog', the Pittsburgh Steelers are the very definition of it.
Any Given Sunday
Here's why the Steelers have a legitimate chance of spoiling the Kansas City Chiefs' 6-0 start:
• Both of these teams play better on the road and the Steelers road-defense is stingy, allowing just 16.67 points per game.
• At home, Ben Roethlisberger and crew average 19.8 ppg. On the road, that number jumps to 21.33 ppg.
• The Steelers road-offense is right on par with what KC's home-defense allows (22.20 ppg).
• The Chiefs offense overall has averaged 32.8 ppg, but at home, they average near five points less (28.00 ppg). When we factor in the Steelers superb road defense, the Chiefs will be looking at a score in the lower 20's.
• The 'Men of Steel' have a knack for scalping the Chiefs. Pittsburgh has won seven out of the last ten times these two tough organizations have met with the average score 23.2 to 17.90 (notice these numbers fit very neatly into this season's offensive production and allowed points on defense.
• The last time these teams met was in January of 2017 and was also played in Arrowhead. The Steelers stole the game 18-16 (again, refer back to that stingy road defense that averages just 16.67 ppg allowed).
• Since the 2015 season, the Steelers have been a road underdog nine times. Their record against the spread through that time period is 5-3-1(62.5%).
• The Chiefs are 13-5 at home since 2015 72.2% and 5-2 as a home favorite (71.4%) yes these are scary numbers, but only 7-10-1 ATS as the home favorites.
Le'Veon Bell hopes to get loose in KC.
Law of Averages
You probably noticed some very similar numbers repeating in the above-listed bullet-points. It's tough to say if the Steelers will walk away with the victory, but it is going to be a very close game with a fairly low score. I love the Steel Curtain to shut tight and stagnate the KC offense enough to keep the game close; it will probably come down to a field goal or less.
The X-factor that has me leery of just coming out and saying that the Steelers will get the win, is the Chiefs breakout rookie Kareem Hunt. We've all watched the young rookie from Toledo turn plays that should be negative into massive positive yardage. I value Hunt at an additional three points. So, looking at Steelers points per game on the road allowed, plus three additional would put the Chiefs around the 20-point mark. Couple that with the Steelers averaging 21.33 points per game on the road, and the Chiefs allowing 20 on defense, we end up with a tight game indeed. I predict 20-21 type score.
Steelers-Chiefs Prediction:
Take the Steelers to cover the spread and the Score UNDER 46 points.
