The hits just keep coming for the Pittsburgh Steelers from the mainstream media, and Las Vegas bookmarkers when it comes to their win total predictions. Everyone seems to believe that head coach Mike Tomlin is going to suddenly crumble and have his first losing season of his career.
Prominent sports books such as Caesar’s, DraftKings and FanDuel, all have the Steelers 2022 win total over/under 7.5 (+105/-125 according to Caesar’s Sportsbook), so why the disrespect to a franchise that hasn’t had a losing record since 2003? Apparently they're unsure of what the Steelers will be able to do without Ben Roethlisberger. The selection of Kenny Pickett in the first round didn't even improve their projections in Vegas at all.
Wednesday on NFL Network, Cynthia Frelund dropped her projections for wins for every team in the NFL based on her own formulas. In her projections, she notes the most recent over/under totals from Vegas for each team along with her projection. This is how she ranks the AFC North teams:
Ravens - 9.0 WINS (over/under 9.0)
Bengals - 8.9 WINS (over/under 9.5)
Browns - 8.8 WINS (over/under OFF)
Steelers - 7.8 WINS (over/under 7.5)
NFL Network
If you're wondering why it says OFF for the Cleveland Browns when it comes to their over/under projection, it's because of the uncertainty surrounding their new quarterback Deshaun Watson. He's likely looking at a multi-game suspension, but if he doesn't get suspended, their chances of winning games is much higher. So Vegas won't allow any bets until there is clarity.
The last time the Steelers finished with a losing record, Bill Cowher was the coach, Roethlisberger was still at Miami of Ohio, and George W. Bush was in the White House. It's been a long time. But if oddsmakers are making their prediction based on the Steelers quarterback situation, they shouldn't.
In 2019, everyone got a look at what Tomlin could do without a premier quarterback as they ran out Mason Rudolph, and Devlin "Duck" Hodges for multiple games. They ended up finishing 8-8, but that's only because they lost their last three games. Had they been able to win even one of those games, they would've slipped into the playoffs.
Mitch Trubisky, and the aforementioned Pickett are much better quarterbacks than the ones Tomlin dealt with in 2019. Even Rudolph from 2022 is better than the 2019 version of himself. Even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers have a middle of the road strength of schedule, and don't have to travel outside of the eastern time zone. Those things should all be considered when taking into account the Steelers win total.
The AFC North is going to be a tough road, but with everyone beating each other up, the race will still likely come down to the final weeks of the season.
Mike Tomlin stands with Ben Roethlisberger
