The changing of the guard has officially started in the AFC North. After going seven seasons without winning more than seven games, the Cincinnati Bengals defeated the odds and were one win away from their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
With the retirement of long-time quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, it appears the power of the north may be shifting away from the Pittsburgh Steelers for the first time in nearly two decades. Below I will discuss where I see the AFC North going over the next three seasons and where the Steelers fit in.
It's no secret that quarterback is the most important position in the NFL. Without a top tier quarterback, it's nearly impossible to be successful. The Steelers were spoiled for the last 18 seasons with a first ballot Hall of Fame level quarterback and it's now time to see who the successor will be. The aforementioned Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns have all spent a first-round pick on a quarterback over the past five seasons. It's been since 2004 that the Steelers have spent their first pick of the draft on a quarterback, but that will likely change and change quickly. Here are my power rankings of organizations over the next three seasons:
1) Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are legit. They have found their franchise quarterback, a top 5 wide receiver and top 5 running back all 25 years of age or younger. The best part for the Bengals is they still have their two best players under their rookie contracts for the next three seasons leaving them plenty of cap space to fill in the pieces.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out their biggest weakness is offensive line. They are in need of four new starters and will have to completely revamp their line in order to keep Joe Burrow healthy and productive. The Bengals won't have their usual top-10 pick in the draft, so they'll likely have to build through free agency. Luckily for the Bengals, they have an estimated $48 million dollars in cap space and they just made a Super Bowl in spite of their awful line play. An organization that used to be where careers go to die may now be one of the top destinations for potential free agents. The Bengals could go back to their old ways and find a way to ruin Burrow's career, but on paper the Bengals have the best chance to dominate the AFC North over the next three years.
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2) Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens and Steelers have very similar rosters in terms of skill and experience. However, the biggest difference and the main reason I ranked the Ravens ahead of the Steelers is quarterback. The Ravens have a former NFL MVP at quarterback in Lamar Jackson and he is only 25 years old. Yes, Jackson has regressed over the past two seasons, but when he is on, he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
The Ravens have huge question marks at the skill positions, but have a ton of players returning from injury this coming season and should be poised to return to the top half of the north. The biggest question mark for the Ravens is how are they going to keep skill in the organization once they are forced the pay Jackson. They'll have to re-sign Jackson this offseason and he is likely going to command close to $40 million dollars per year. They won't be able to spend in free agency like they normally do and will really have to rely on drafting well. If Jackson can return to his 2019 form, then the Ravens could easily jump the Bengals, but his play hasn't been up to snuff and the Ravens team will only go as far as Jackson can take them.
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
This is a weird spot to see the Steelers in an AFC North power ranking. The Steelers won the North 8 out of Roethlisberger's 18 seasons, made the playoffs in 12 of 18, and haven't finished lower than second in any of his 18 seasons as starting quarterback. But Roethlisberger has retired and the Steelers have a huge hole at quarterback. The Steelers are not a playoff team right now on paper. They have plenty of skill on their roster, but no quarterback currently on the Steelers roster would lead them to the playoffs. Could the Steelers make a huge splash and bring in a veteran quarterback? Absolutely and they would then propel to number one on my power rankings. But based on their rostered quarterbacks, they land third on this list and they have a lot of work to do.
Their offensive line is the biggest issue of this organization and they will not improve until they revamp it. Their defense has huge question marks at corner and inside linebacker. Their skill players match up with just about any organization in the league, but the holes on the roster are glaring. The organization needs to invest in their line and find a new franchise quarterback. Once those two things happen, then they will return to their dominance, but until then, it's going to be hard for them to compete with the talent of the other teams in the north.
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4) Cleveland Browns
The Browns have taken a large step back and have huge question marks going forward. It's pretty obvious Baker Mayfield is not the game changer they expected when they took him with the first overall pick in the draft. The Browns have a decision to make and it's basically a lose-lose situation. If they decide to pay Mayfield, then he will eat a ton of cap and they won't be able to build around him the way they need to in order for him to be successful. But if they don't pay him, then they are back to square one and need to find a franchise quarterback.
They have had success in the draft over the past couple seasons and have hit on some great free agents, but lack of quarterback play has been their Achilles heel and prevented them from building on their success during their 2020 season. The Browns on paper have the weakest roster in the north and don't have a lot cap room or draft capital to build their team up. Unless they land a significant upgrade at quarterback this offseason, the Browns will be back to where they belong at the bottom of the AFC North for the next three seasons.
These are obviously projections and could easily change any day, but as of right now before free agency starts for the 2022 season, this is where I see the AFC North over the next three years. The Steelers clearly have a lot of work to do, but I trust the organization to find a way back to the top of the AFC North and bring a championship back to Pittsburgh.
Where do you see the AFC North heading over the next three years? Sound off in the comment section below!
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