For a moment, let’s think back to Halloween weekend. The Pittsburgh Steelers had just suffered their sixth loss of the season and sat at 2-6 heading into their week 9 bye week. The loss to the Philadelphia Eagles was not just any typical “loss”; it was an old-fashioned butt-kicking and their second loss of the season by over 21 points. Between the players and coaches, there was plenty of blame to go around and a lot to sort out during the week off.
Now, if we fast forward to today, the Steelers have reeled off a 2-1 record since and are coming off one of their best games of the season in victorious fashion against the Indianapolis Colts. Besides the obvious return of reigning Defensive Player of the Year in T.J. Watt, what else has changed since the bye week?
James Pierre (#42) and the Steelers' defense celebrate an interception against the Indianapolis Colts in Indianapolis, Indiana. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
Let’s look at three crazy statistical turnarounds the Steelers have made since the bye week that are resulting in wins.
Turnover Margin
After throwing eight interceptions in a span of five games, Kenny Pickett vowed to be more careful with the ball in the second half of the season. Even though not every interception may not have been his fault, Pickett took ownership of them. So much so, when he returned from the bye week, Pickett talked about his top priority in his focus heading into the second half of the season:
"The bottom line is I've gotta protect the football. That's definitely something during this back half of the season that needs to be a focus for me."
Pickett wasn’t lying. He hasn’t thrown an interception since the bye week and has made noticeable efforts in ball security throughout the games. However, the team’s turnover margin doesn’t just stop at the quarterback and the numbers are shocking. Before the bye week, the Steelers turned the ball over 14 times, while forcing opposing teams to turn the ball over 10 times (it should be noted that five of those came from the Cincinnati Bengals on opening day). That equals a minus four turnover margin in the first eight games.
Steelers' James Pierre (#42) makes an interception against the Indianapolis Colts. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
Albeit a much smaller sample size, the games since the off week have started an opposite trend. That being, the Steelers haven’t turned the ball over in each of their three games, but have forced six from the opposition. That’s a plus six turnover margin. For those who have kept count, the Steelers haven’t turned the ball over in the month of November. It is no secret that turnovers have a high chance to lead to wins, and seeing as though the defense is averaging two turnovers per game so far, that is very promising to stacking wins in December.
Third-Down Conversion Percentage
Third downs have been critical for the Steelers on both sides of the ball. It seemed as though the offense couldn’t possess the ball for over three plays in the first half of the season, while the defense had trouble getting off the field on third down in crucial moments of the game. The numbers confirm that pedestrian eye test. In the first eight games, the Steelers’ offense converted 36 of 107 third downs, which equals 33.6 conversion percentage. Meanwhile, the defense allowed opposing offenses to convert 49 of 113 third downs, which equals a 43.6 conversion percentage.
It is hard to win games when the offense can’t convert on third down when they need to and the defense can’t stop teams from doing so, plain and simple.
Steelers' Benny Snell (#24) celebrates his touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts which came on third down. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
Looking at the last three games, we see another 180-degree turnaround in this trend. The offense has converted 24 of 48 on third down, which equals a 50 percent conversion rate. The defense has bucked down and has only allowed 9 of 33 conversions on third down, which is a 27.3 conversion percentage. To put it another way, the offense has increased their third-down conversion rate by over 16 percent, while the defense has dropped their allowance on third down by the same margin. Further, the defense is only averaging three third-down conversions per game since the bye week, as the offense is averaging 8 third-down conversions per game.
In short, the offense is staying on the field when they need to, and the defense is getting off the field when they need to. This is another strong indicator of win probability.
Scoring Margin
In the words of the late, great, Hall of Famer John Madden:
"Usually, the team that scores the most points wins the game."
It may sound obvious, but a team’s overall scoring margin can say a lot about a team's successes and failures. For the sake of the Steelers, it speaks volumes. Fans have grown frustrated over the offensive performance in the first half of the season. Whether that is a result of offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s play-calling or lack of execution from the players is yet to be determined. Regardless, the numbers jump off the page and tell us a crazy story.
Steelers' George Pickens (#14) celebrates his two-point conversion catch against the Indianapolis Colts. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
In the first half of the season, the Steelers posted 120 points and allowed opposing offenses 197 points. That is a deficit of 77 points. Let me say that again; the Steelers were 11 touchdowns (and extra points) shy of breaking even in what the defense allowed other teams across eight games. On average, the offense only scored 15 points per game, while allowing over 24 points per game. It is at this moment when I think back to Madden’s quote above. It is hard to win games if a team can’t outscore the other.
The trend in November, however, is vastly different. The offense has put up 74 combined points in their last three games. The defense has only allowed 64 points. That equals an advantage of 10 points for the Steelers over their opponents in that span. Further, their per-game average moved up to just under 25 points, while the defense clamped down and dropped their average to just over 21 points. To put it another way, the Steelers have scored roughly 25 points-per-game in November and have allowed less than 22 points-per-game.
Call me crazy, but I’ll take a 25-22 Steelers’ victory any day of the week. This scoring trend is another breath of fresh air for fans wondering when the scoring would start.
There is a plethora of other statistics and analysis we can look at and dissect to help break down the Steelers’ strengths and weaknesses. With that said, these three above all indicate a winning trend and possible upswing heading into December. It may be too little too late by the time January rolls, around, but as head coach Mike Tomlin vowed in 2009, “we will unleash hell in December,” and the numbers are looking to show exactly that.
How do you think the Steelers will do in December? What statistics have you been following since the bye week? Let us know in the comments below!
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