The NFL season keeps inching closer, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are entering one of their most pivotal seasons ever. Uncertainty may be high for several reasons, but the Steelers’ best bet of the season is anything but.
Karl Roser / Pittsburgh Steelers
Browsing through United Gamblers’ list of all PA sports betting sites, one game on the Steelers' schedule stood out immediately. Pittsburgh hosts the Cleveland Browns in Week 6, a game where sports betting sites have listed the Steelers as 6.0 or 6.5-point favorites, depending on the operator.
If there’s a Sunday to be confident about taking the Steelers against the spread (ATS), it’s easily that one.
The Steelers Own the Browns at Home
Looking only at regular season matchups, the Steelers have beaten the Browns in 21 consecutive home contests. Cleveland’s last victory in the Steel City was on October 5, 2003. Tommy Maddox was Pittsburgh’s top passer, while Amos Zereoue led the offense in rushing and receiving. It was a long time ago.
In recent history, the Steelers have covered the spread in seven straight home matchups with their AFC North rivals. That 7-0-0 ATS run includes six victories by at least seven points.
That 6.0-point spread seems safe, especially since the Browns are commonly projected to be one of the league’s worst teams again.
Pittsburgh Has Been One of the NFL’s Best Bets Against the Spread
It’s not just that the Steelers whoop the Browns consistently in Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh has the NFL’s third-best ATS record, 49-34-1, in regular season games since 2020. That includes three consecutive regular seasons with double-digit wins against the spread.
They’ve been the third-best team (20-12-0 ATS) against division opponents since 2020. In that same span, the Steelers have been the fourth-best NFL team against the spread when facing conference foes. At home, Pittsburgh is fifth in ATS record this decade at 24-18-1.
Most importantly for Pittsburgh’s Week 6 matchup, the Steelers are undefeated ATS after a bye week since 2020. One of those post-bye week wins was against the Browns too.
AP photo
Defensive lineman Cam Heyward takes down quarterback Deshaun Watson during a Steelers-Browns game.
Cleveland Stinks ATS
Mirroring most of the franchise’s struggles this century, the Browns have been abysmal against the spread since 2020.
In the regular season, Cleveland is 35-48-1 ATS this decade, good for 30th among the league’s 32 teams. Their against the spread record in away games is also 30th (17-26-1 ATS) since the 2020 season.
These are the Browns, so there are obviously worse stats.
Cleveland ranks 31st against the spread in divisional matchups using the 2020 start point. Nobody has been worse ATS against conference opponents in that span. For as strong as the Steelers are ATS, the Browns are equally as inept.
Other Steelers Bets to Consider
Week 6 isn’t until October, so that leaves plenty of downtime before that bet takes center stage. There are plenty of season-long wagers worth checking out for the Steelers.
Aaron Rodgers’ passing yards line is set at 3,200.5 yards with most sportsbooks.
Throughout his 20-year career, Rodgers has never played in at least 10 games and finished with fewer than 3,500 passing yards, let alone 3,200. That includes last year’s much maligned campaign with the New York Jets. Pittsburgh’s offense may not be known for its passing game anymore, but the team has exceeded 3,200 passing yards in every season sans one (2019 when Ben Roethlisberger played two games) since 2006.
Karl Roser / Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) practices at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex during the 2025 minicamp, Tuesday June 10, 2025.
Keeping up with the new QB, who should be an upgrade, Rodgers has thrown at least 25 TDs in every season where he suited up at least 10 times. Most sportsbooks have his passing TDs line below 25.0 ahead of the preseason.
If he’s slinging the ball, the primary target should be D.K. Metcalf, who has topped 950 receiving yards every year except his rookie campaign. Metcalf racked up 900 yards that season. The Steelers’ top wide receiver should flirt with another 1,000-yard year, whereas most books have his season line in the 900s.
