When the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the New York Jets for their Week 1 matchup, they’ll do so as three-point road favorites with a total of 39.5, pending line movements leading up to the game. These teams played in 2024, of course — Pittsburgh topped New York 37-15 on Sunday Night Football at Acrisure in Week 7. Most of the best football sportsbooks online have the Steelers as at least a -150 favorite on the moneyline, and you’ll be able to place wagers on either side at your favorite social sportsbook if sports betting isn’t yet legal in your home state.
Karl Roser / Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers' defensive line attacks former New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers during a regular season game in 2024.
As we look ahead to game one of the regular season, are there any takeaways from the Steelers’ win last October that we can use to predict the outcome of this Week 1 meeting?
Both teams made major changes this offseason, and it’s fair to suggest that those roster changes are the reason these two teams were scheduled to play each other in Week 1: Pittsburgh signed Aaron Rodgers after his two-year stint with New York; the Jets signed Justin Fields away from the Steelers on a two-year deal.
However, with the roster overhaul the Steelers engineered this offseason — bringing in DK Metcalf, Jonnu Smith, Darius Slay, Jalen Ramsey and others; losing George Pickens, Dan Moore, Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick, to name a few — can we really use last season’s outcome against the Jets to predict this year’s outcome?
The irony here is that, while the teams swapped quarterbacks, only one QB from last year’s matchup will be present in Week 1: Rodgers started against Pittsburgh last year while Russell Wilson started for the Steelers after six starts for Fields.
Rodgers didn’t look great in the 37-15 loss. Against what would end up as the 25th-ranked pass defense, he threw a touchdown and two picks with 276 yards on 39 attempts. The Jets couldn’t get the run going, logging just 54 yards on the ground.
Conversely, the Steelers had one of their better offensive performances against a strong Jets defense. But with Wilson, Pickens and Najee Harris producing the lion’s share of the offensive output, drawing a comparison to the Week 1 game would be a reach.
Barry Reeger / Imagn Images
Former Steelers WR George Pickens goes for a one-handed catch against the Jets.
Instead, let’s look at the upcoming game using last year’s full-season results from a broader scope.
In Fields’ six starts with Pittsburgh, Steelers games totaled 40 or more points — exceeding the Week 1 total of 39.5 — just twice. Not only did OC Arthur Smith handle Fields with kid gloves to start the season; Head Coach Mike Tomlin also used Fields’ running ability to slow down games with an attempt to control the tempo on his terms.
Will Jets first-year head coach, Aaron Glenn, handle Fields similarly? It’s too early to tell. But with a rookie head coach whose quarterback doesn’t have a long track record of passing success, you can easily argue that Fields won’t be asked to throw the ball 40 times in Week 1.
Aaron Rodgers’ Success — Or Lack Thereof — Will Determine Week 1 Outcome
The real deciding factor in predicting the outcome of the Week 1 matchup is how Rodgers fares in a new-look Steelers offense. The Jets were involved in 12 games last year that exceeded 39.5 points, including six of their final seven games. While Steelers fans are hoping Rodgers builds on his late-season success, one can’t make that assumption without acknowledging that Rodgers is in his age-41 season.
Philip G. Pavely / Imagn / Reuters
Steelers' quarterback Aaron Rodgers making a throw during minicamp.
So, do the Steelers warrant a three-point betting edge in this matchup? The simplest argument is that Pittsburgh upgraded slightly on both sides of the ball, and while the Jets made moves to improve their roster in the long-term, it’s certainly easier for a 18-year veteran to acclimate to a new team in Week 1 than a fifth-year player.
Our take? The Steelers should win this game on the moneyline, and after beating the Jets by 22 last year, the three-point spread looks pretty good, too. But if you’re going to place any bets on this game, consider going under the 39.5-point total — we’ll see some strong defense on both sides with offensive growing pains more likely on the Jets side than the Steelers.
