If you’re reading this article on SteelerNation, you’re probably a Pittsburgh Steelers fan. Most betting experts would tell you to avoid betting on your favorite team because it leads to emotional decisions. Counterpoint: If you watch this team every week, maybe you’ll notice a trend before bookmakers do.
This week, that’s exactly what we’re hoping for.
Karl Roser / Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers points towards the camera during a home game in the Steel City of Pittsburgh.
The Week 3 matchup between the Steelers and Patriots currently has a first-quarter line of -1.5 points for Pittsburgh with the total for first-quarter points set at 7.5. That’s too low a number for these two teams, and we’ll break down why that’s the case throughout this article.
Bet365 Sportsbook has the best odds on the Steelers and Patriots to combine for more than 7.5 points in the first quarter at +105, and new users can get $200 in bonus bets by placing a wager of $5 or more, win or lose. The first-quarter total is also eligible for same-game parlays, so you can pair it with other picks like player props or the moneyline.
So, what makes the first-quarter over bet so enticing? It’s not just what we’ve seen from the Steelers and Patriots so far in 2025 — more on that later. One factor we always keep in mind when placing a bet on an NFL game is the public perception of the teams on the field versus the facts, and we think Vegas is turning back the clock to 2024 by setting the first quarter total at 7.5.
Last year, the Steelers and Patriots were two of the worst teams at scoring in the first quarter. Per TeamRankings.com, New England ranked 25th in the NFL in first quarter points scored with 3.4, while the Steelers were even worse, ranking 29th with just 2.7 points per game in the first quarter.
What a difference a year makes.
After two weeks, the Patriots lead the NFL with 9.5 points per game in the first quarter. The Steelers have been much better, too, currently tied for ninth with 6.5 points per game. Small sample size? Absolutely. But if bookmakers are preparing for these teams to return to their 2024 form in Week 3, someone should tell them that these are two completely different teams from a season ago.
Jordan Schofield / SteelerNation (X: @JSKO_PHOTO)
Steelers outside linebacker TJ Watt (90) during 2025 training camp in Latrobe, PA.
It may not be palatable for every NFL fan, but identifying flaws in your favorite team can set you up for success with your wagers. The Steelers were a top-ten defense a year ago, and players and coaches led fans to believe they’d be much improved this year with the additions of star veterans like Jalen Ramsay and Darius Slay.
But after two weeks, no storyline has dominated Steelers conversations more than their lackluster defense. Not only have they struggled to stop the run; they’ve notched just three sacks. Still, the biggest issue with the Steelers defense ahead of Week 3 is arguably health. Alex Highsmith and Isaiahh Loudermilk have already been ruled out for this game, with Joey Porter Jr., DeShon Elliott and Derrick Harmon all being labeled “questionable at best” by Mike Tomlin.
On the bright side, Pittsburgh found the end zone in the first quarter in Week 1, and Chris Boswell booted two field goals in Week 2, so their first quarter offense has been much more productive than a season ago. If odds makers are still influenced by last year’s average of 2.7 points per first quarter, they’re giving bettors an opportunity.
Look for the Steelers and Patriots to Both Score Early in Week 3
Conversely, the Patriots offense is a vastly improved group after being one of the worst scoring teams in the NFL in 2024. Drake Maye is thriving under a new coaching staff, averaging about 85 more passing yards per game than his rookie season.
To reach the over on 7.5 points, we’ll likely need two scores — a touchdown and a field goal will do. Between the Steelers’ woes on defense, the Patriots’ improved offense, and Pittsburgh’s track record of scoring early in the first two weeks, we think it’s a smart bet to take over 7.5 points in the first quarter at +105 on Bet365.
