Are the Indianapolis Colts for real?
It’s the question most football fans were asking themselves for the first month or so of the 2025 season, seemingly answered by their 7-1 record, top-ranked offense and routine double-digit margins of victory.
AP Photo / Darron Cummings
It was fair to doubt whether QB Daniel Jones, who still holds career-highs by far in QB rating and completion percentage, could sustain his success over the long haul. But coming off his first game with three or more touchdown passes since his rookie season in 2019, even the Jones haters are beginning to quiet.
So, are the Colts for real? Sure they are. But while their offense remains one of the top scoring threats in the league, their defense is not on the same level, and has yet to be tested to any major degree.
That’s the crux of our betting advice this week. While ugly losses to the Bengals and Packers have scared us away from backing the Steelers in any meaningful way right now, there’s something we think both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis will likely bring to the table this week.
Points.
Why? For starters, the Colts may be without a few. DB Kenny Moore, S Nick Cross and DT Grover Stewart all remain questionable for Sunday’s contest. But injuries aside, this Colts defense has not been anything to write home about in 2025, and multiple factors suggest a rough outing incoming from the Indianapolis defense.
The Colts rank sixth in the NFL in points allowed, averaging 19.3 points allowed per game. But of the seven NFL teams allowing fewer than 20 points per game this season, the Colts are surrendering far more production than the rest, allowing over 345 yards per game. No other team has allowed fewer than 20 points per game and more than 315 yards per game this season.
Steelers.com
Steelers' Cam Heyward sacks the Colts quarterback.
What does that tell us? For a team that isn’t allowing much in terms of scoring, the Colts are allowing plenty of yardage, suggesting that the teams they’re playing are moving the football but failing to protect it, can’t reach the end zone, and even fail to make field goals — Indianapolis has allowed the fourth-fewest field goals this season, after all.
The Colts have the 18th-ranked defense in PFF’s defensive power rankings. And it’s not just the production they’ve allowed that puts them so low in the rankings — it’s also who they’ve played.
Consider this: The Colts have played the NFL’s worst offensive team in the Tennessee Titans twice already in their eight games. They also played the 31st-ranked offense in the Las Vegas Raiders. The average rank of their opponents in terms of points scored is 22nd this season. Their only loss came to the LA Rams, who rank tied for 11th in points scored.
The team they’re tied with? The Pittsburgh Steelers.
No, we aren’t suggesting that you should bet on the Steelers to beat the Colts on Sunday. If you’ve made it this far, you’re probably thinking that if the Colts defense is mediocre, they’re still better than the Steelers’ defense.
And that only helps prove our point.
Take the Over in Sunday’s Steelers-Colts Matchup
The over/under for Sunday’s game at Acrisure Stadium is set at 50.5 at most online sportsbooks in the US, and you can also bet on totals on social sportsbooks if you live in a state where sports betting isn’t yet legal.
And for Sunday’s game, we’d suggest taking over 50.5 total points to be scored.
The Steelers are averaging 25 points per game this season, and after posting 31 against the Bengals and 25 against the Packers over the past two weeks, it’s clear that their offense isn’t the problem. In this case, you’d be betting on their offense and against their defense — that feels like a safe bet as they’ve allowed 33 and 35 points over the past two weeks, respectively, and now take on the top-ranked offense in the NFL.
The Steelers shouldn’t have any trouble matching their season average and scoring 25 points on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Steelers — but fortunately for the over — the Colts are likely to score even more.
