It’s fair to say that the mood surrounding the Pittsburgh Steelers is a blend of cautious optimism and anxiety after the NFL Draft. Missing out on Makai Lemon stung, but Max Iheanachor was still a good pick considering Broderick Jones’ neck injury, while picks like Germie Bernard and Daylen Everette addressed key needs.
Matt Freed / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
But even with those rookie acquisitions and trades for Michael Pittman Jr. and Rico Dowdle, questions over the team’s ceiling linger. How will Mike McCarthy fare in place of Mike Tomlin? Will Aaron Rodgers still be the same quarterback and stay healthy? Those creeping doubts fuel debate over whether the Steelers will fall short in 2026.
A closer look at Kalshi prediction markets helps to gauge broader consensus. In these markets, traders are faced with a yes-or-no question and place wagers against each other on outcomes. As each contract pays $1 if an event happens and $0 if not, the buy price represents the implied probability of a scenario occurring.
While anything can happen prior to the first game of the season in September, the markets do help to paint a picture of public perception toward Pittsburgh. Right now, it’s fair to say that confidence is not high.
Seven or more wins the minimum expectation for the Steelers
After finishing 10-7 and topping the AFC North in 2025, the Steelers’ strength of schedule lies in the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the NFL. Along with two games each against the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Cleveland Browns, there are tricky matchups against Philadelphia, Denver, and Super Bowl LX runners-up New England to navigate.
But there’s still an expectation that McCarthy gets beyond seven wins in his first season in charge. Kalshi gives Pittsburgh a 99% chance of seven or more wins, and the majority of buyers believe that they will finish with eight wins or more, with the current probability standing at 58%.
Due to the myriad of questions surrounding the team, though, a winning record is deemed unlikely by the public. While Steelers fans are all too familiar with predictions of finishing 9-8, there’s only a 28% chance that this will be the case in 2026, assuming that Tomlin’s streak of never finishing with a losing record will depart with him. That not only casts doubt on where they might place in the AFC North, but also on their playoff hopes.
Doubts over Steelers AFC North winner credentials
That is consequently reflected in the market examining who might win the AFC North. In 2025, the Steelers were able to capitalize on the Ravens’ and Bengals’ injury issues to top the standings. Four months on, there is no such confidence heading into 2026.
Currently, Kalshi believes that Baltimore is the favorite for the division at 49%, an outcome which might well be inevitable if Lamar Jackson, Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey and company can stay healthy. It’s a similar case for Cincinnati, who finished at the bottom of the division after losing Joe Burrow for much of the year.
Even after the departure of Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals are still seen as the Ravens’ closest competitors, with a 32% chance of winning the North. Pittsburgh and Cleveland, however, lag way behind the two favorites, with probabilities of 13% and 10% respectively.
Matt Durisko / AP Photo
Steelers' TJ Watt chats with Browns' Myles Garrett after game.
Steelers predicted to miss playoffs
Winning the division might be a long shot presently, but as long as the Steelers make the playoffs, McCarthy will still consider it a good season to build on. Unfortunately, NFL bettors don’t believe Pittsburgh will be playing much January football in 2027.
On Kalshi, the team’s probability of finishing with a strong enough record to reach the Wild Card round stands at 34%. With only nine teams given a lower chance, the public certainly believes that there’s a good chance that the Steelers will miss out on the postseason for the first time since 2022.
Obviously, plenty can change in the months before the start of the regular season. But with cap space limiting how many more signings can be made, the odds are seemingly against the Steelers in 2026.