Did The Week 1 Trends Tell Us Anything About The Steelers?

The Steelers' opener did what the history said it would. Pittsburgh closed as a 6-point favorite against Atlanta, won 20-13, covered by a point and finished eight points under a total of 41.

Three league-wide Week 1 trends were in play before the season started: unders in Week 1, fast starts from teams that covered at a middling rate the year before, and favorites when two playoff teams meet. Two of them pointed at Pittsburgh's opener. Two are built on many years of results; the other covers two seasons. Four games later, after a 27-24 loss in Cleveland on Oct. 1 and a 34-22 win over Indianapolis on Oct. 11, the better question is whether any of them told us something about this team after Sept. 13.

Trend 1: Week 1 unders

Since 2005, Week 1 unders have hit at a 55% rate, and since 2015 it's 96-79 to the under. The usual explanation is the early-season mix of new offensive pieces, starters who barely played in the preseason and defenses that arrive ahead of the offenses they face.

Pittsburgh's opener fit: 33 points against a total of 41. Week 2 in Foxborough stayed under too, 20-3 against a total of 41.5, with the Steelers held to a single field goal.

Then the pattern broke. The Bengals game closed at 43 and finished 30-27, 14 points over. The Cleveland game closed at 38.5 and finished 27-24, 12.5 points over. The Colts game closed at 43.5 and finished 34-22, 12.5 points over. According to Pro Football Reference's line history, that leaves Pittsburgh 3-2 to the over on totals this season, after the Steelers went 10-8 to the over last year, counting the playoff loss to Houston.

Trend 2: The middle-of-the-pack cover teams

All three trends come from BetMGM's Week 1 trends research, and this one is the most specific. Teams that covered 50% to 59% of the time the year before have gone 15-7 against the spread in Week 1 since 2024.

Pittsburgh was squarely in that band. The Steelers went 9-8 against the spread in the 2025 regular season, a 52.9% rate, on the way to 10-7 and the AFC North title, and 9-9 counting the 30-6 Wild Card loss to Houston. Late lines did a lot of the swinging: they covered as 7-point underdogs in a 29-24 win at Detroit, then lost 13-6 in Cleveland as 3-point favorites the next week.

The opener added another win to the trend by the smallest margin available, a 7-point win as a 6-point favorite. Since then the Steelers have looked like a coin flip. They failed to cover as 5-point underdogs in New England and covered as 3.5-point underdogs against Cincinnati by winning outright. As 2.5-point favorites in Cleveland, they lost outright. Against Indianapolis, favored by 2.5, they won by 12. That makes them 3-2 against the spread, about what a 52.9% team looks like.

Trend 3: Favorites when playoff teams meet

Week 1 games between two teams that made the previous postseason have gone 33-21-1 to the favorite against the spread since 2005, and road favorites in those games are 10-6.

Pittsburgh's opener didn't qualify. Atlanta missed the 2025 playoffs, which made it a playoff team hosting a non-playoff team, the matchup the same research flags in the other direction: non-playoff teams went 9-2 against the spread against playoff teams in Week 1. The Falcons fell a point short of adding to that.

Pittsburgh's closest to the playoff-team angle came in Week 2. New England was the AFC's No. 2 seed last season and the Steelers were No. 4, and the Patriots, favored by 5, won 20-3. That fits the spirit of the trend but sits outside its Week 1 sample, and it won't come up again soon. The Colts missed the 2025 playoffs, and so did the next four opponents: the Buccaneers, Saints, Browns and Bengals.

What Cleveland showed

The Oct. 1 game in Cleveland was the first time this season Pittsburgh was favored on the road, by 2.5 with a total of 38.5. The first half went badly. Denzel Ward intercepted Aaron Rodgers early in the second quarter, the Browns scored 21 straight points, and Deshaun Watson finished the half 14-for-17 for 181 yards and a touchdown, with Cleveland up 21-10. Rodgers and Mike McCarthy exchanged words on the sideline before the break. 

Pittsburgh came back to tie it 24-24 with 1:42 left on a 3-yard touchdown pass from Rodgers and a two-point conversion. Andre Szmyt then hit a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left, and Grant Delpit intercepted Rodgers' final heave. The Browns won 27-24, their fifth straight home win against Pittsburgh.

The defense's health mattered more for what came next than any trend. Jalen Ramsey played with the broken wrist he suffered against Cincinnati, Derrick Harmon was carted off, and Jamel Dean and Nick Herbig were also hurt during the game. Harmon went on injured reserve with a foot injury on Oct. 5, Dean missed the Colts game with an ankle injury, and Ramsey played through the wrist again. Against the Colts on Oct. 11, Jaylen Warren ran for 101 yards, including a 50-yard touchdown, and turned a short pass into an 80-yard score, and Rodgers threw three touchdown passes for the third straight game. The 34-22 win, as 2.5-point favorites, leaves Pittsburgh 3-2 against the spread.

Where the Steelers fit

Week 1 trends describe the league, and they say less about one team once its own results pile up. Pittsburgh fit both angles that applied to its opener, an under and a cover from a team in the 50% to 59% band, and has been harder to read since: 3-2 against the spread, 3-2 to the over on totals and a Rodgers offense that scored 3 points in Foxborough and 30 against Cincinnati a week later. The trends had the opener right. The trip to Tampa Bay on Oct. 18 is the next test.

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