Well, the 2021 season started out with a bang as the Pittsburgh Steelers went into New York and handed the Buffalo Bills their first loss of the season. Last week we put three bets out and went 1-1-1. We cashed on the over pass completions by Bills quarterback Josh Allen but pushed on Diontae Johnson’s total catches of 5 and lost on Najee Harris’ over receiving yards.
If this is the first you’re following my weekly prop bets, you’ll find I provide full transparency on how we did the previous week as well as statistics and insights into why I chose a specific bet. Obviously we aren’t happy with a non-profitable day, but as I said in the article, the beginning of the season is always touchy and tough to predict. With a full 60 minutes of Steelers football under our belt this season, we can start to see how certain personnel will be utilized and take advantage of the sportsbook to cash in. Below you will find two bets that I feel very good about for tomorrow as the Steelers open at home against the Las Vegas Raiders.
1. Najee Harris anytime touchdown scorer (-140)
If you shop around, you may be able to find a better number, but this is the best number I was able to find via DraftKings. Last week, Harris struggled to get his footing under him in the first half, but was able to put a few good runs and catches together in the second half. I suspect Harris to continue to build off of that success and take advantage of a huge mismatch the Steelers will have against a poor run defense by the Raiders. Harris had two spots during the game where he was targeted on passes from Ben Roethlisberger, but unfortunately Harris was underthrown on one and wasn’t able to outrun Bills linebacker Matt Milano on his other opportunity. Regardless, Harris will get plenty of chances to make it into the end zone and look for him to get his first NFL touchdown this weekend.
2. Kenyan Drake over 20.5 receiving yards (-110)
As I said last week, I usually don’t bet on the opposing team, but when I see a number that just sticks out like a sore thumb, I’m going to take advantage if it will allow us to profit. This number makes zero sense if you watched the game last week. Drake, who the Raiders gave a two-year $12 million dollar contract to this off-season, has never been a great runner. However, he’s always been a threat in the passing game. Last week, while splitting time with starting running back Josh Jacobs, Drake caught 5 of 5 targets for 57 yards. This week, Jacobs is out with a foot injury, so why would this number be a third of what his production was last week? Beats me, but it provides an easy win and look for Derek Carr to look for Drake on multiple check downs while he’s under duress.
What’s your favorite prop bet this week? Sound off in the comment section below!