Week 5 is here and we are looking to stay hot after coming off a 3-0 sweep last week. Our record has moved to 6-1-1 on the season and 8-1-1 including preseason bets. The books are starting to catch on to what the Pittsburgh Steelers offense likes to do, so it’s not as easy to identify spots to make money. There is one bet this week that I really like and feel confident about. I usually put out multiple bets per week, but I’m not going to call a bet unless I feel really confident about it and there’s only one prop that I feel we can exploit this week and make some money on.
Pat Freiermuth over 1.5 catches (-134)
This is all about understanding matchups and exploiting the books for not catching on. The Denver Broncos have a top tier defense this year, but have their weaknesses. Their primary weakness on defense are their linebackers and coverage in the middle of the field. Through their first four games, they have given up huge games to slot receivers and tight ends. The Steelers have targeted Freiermuth a lot for a rookie through the first four games and I expect them to try to work the middle of the field a lot with Freiermuth and JuJu Smith-Schuster today. Look for Freiermuth to have at least 4 catches for 40+ yards and there’s a good chance he finds the end zone today for his second career touchdown.
What’s your favorite prop bet today? Sound off in the comments below!