Steelers' Jaylen Warren Has Solid Prop Bet Odds In Ireland

As the Steelers prepare for their trip to Ireland to take on the Vikings on Sunday, they do so coming off a win against the Patriots that featured a noteworthy adjustment in their offensive game plan. It wasn’t a pretty win over New England — Pittsburgh needed every one of the Patriots’ five turnovers to earn the W. But offensive coordinator Arthur Smith committed to an offensive veteran in a way that might inform how the Steelers offense will operate moving forward.

That player? Jaylen Warren.

Warren enters Week 4 with an intriguing over/under on his receiving yards. The lowest total we could find for Warren was 20.5 receiving yards on BetMGM, one of the top sportsbooks online right now for betting on NFL games. You can also bet on Warren to go over or under 20.5 receiving yards on a few social sportsbooks like Dabble and Fliff.

So, will Warren go over or under 20.5 receiving yards on Sunday? Let’s dig into the details.

After three seasons as RB2 behind Najee Harris, Warren entered the 2025-26 season as the presumptive lead back, but there were still question marks. Warren had never been RB1 for an NFL team, and having been undrafted in 2022, there was some doubt that he’d be able to carry the load as a featured back.

The Steelers had their questions about Warren, too. They drafted Kaleb Johnson in the third round out of Iowa and signed Kenneth Gainwell to add veteran depth. How the Steelers would choose to divvy up touches between the three running backs was an open question throughout training camp.

Then on September 1st, the Steelers’ front office made a commitment to Warren in the form of a two-year contract extension. Warren, who was set to make just over $5 million this season, also got a pay raise to $7 for 2025, a sign that he may indeed be treated as a true number one back in the Steelers backfield.

Still, it didn’t result in much of a change in usage for Warren in his debut as the lead back in Week 1 against the Jets. Warren carried the ball 11 times and caught two passes for 22 yards, with Kenneth Gainwell getting a surprising 10 touches, digging into Warren’s share. Warren notched 14 carries and four receptions for 86 yards in the Steelers’ Week 2 loss to the Seahawks; Gainwell earned five carries and caught three passes.

Of course, Kaleb Johnson factors into the equation, too. He carried the ball only once in each of the first two weeks, and after a game-changing mistake as a kick returner against Seattle, he remained on the sideline in Week 3.

It was in that win over the Patriots in Week 3 that the Steelers offense began to focus a lot more on Jaylen Warren. It was predictable, considering Johnson’s mistake and Gainwell’s inability to gain much traction in Pittsburgh’s offense. Arthur Smith gave Warren a career-high 18 carries and Aaron Rodgers targeted Warren six times, resulting in five receptions for 34 yards.

Warren Is a Great Bet to Go Over 20.5 Receiving Yards in Week 4

Perhaps you see where we’re going with this.

In Week 4, we’re looking for the Steelers to continue getting the ball in Warren’s hands. He doesn’t have much competition in the backfield right now, and as the Steelers continue to try to establish reliable pass-catchers not named DK Metcalf, Warren stands out as a dependable option who will continue to get looks.

But a lot of carries doesn’t always result in rushing yards for Warren; he tallied just 47 yards on 18 carries last week, and his Week 4 rushing total is set at 58.5 yards, which is a tough bet. His total receptions is set at 3.5, which could hit or miss.

But to list Warren at 20.5 receiving yards feels like a low miss by Vegas. He’s averaged 44 receiving yards per game this year and is the Steelers’ leading receiver through three weeks. The Steelers may not be favored against the Vikings, but you can count on Jaylen Warren to go 

over 20.5 receiving yards.