Steelers' History Of 6-2 Starts Carries A Brutal Playoff Warning

The Pittsburgh Steelers came out of their bye week at 6-2, riding a four-game winning streak and sitting on top of the AFC North. If history is any guide, that record all but guarantees a trip to the playoffs. What it does not guarantee is anything after that. A look back at how past Steelers teams finished after the same start shows two very different stories, and one of them is a warning for Head Coach Mike McCarthy and his team.

The numbers come from a breakdown published by WPXI this week, and the first part is good news for Pittsburgh.

"Of the previous 16 Steelers teams to start 6-2, 15 went on to reach the playoffs, with the 2009 team being the lone exception," the report said.

That 2009 team is the cautionary tale. The defending Super Bowl champions were 6-2 at the midway point, then lost five straight games and finished 9-7 and out of the postseason.

The second number is the one that should get the Steelers' attention. Of the 15 teams that reached the playoffs, seven lost their first postseason game. In other words, nearly half of the franchise's 6-2 starts that made the playoffs ended without a single playoff win.

The most recent example is fresh. The 2024 Steelers were 6-2 and improved to 8-2, then went 2-5 down the stretch to finish 10-7. Their season ended with a 28-14 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card Round. Other recent 6-2 starts ended the same way. The 2007 and 2011 teams both lost on Wild Card weekend, and the 2017 team went 13-3 before losing its first playoff game at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Steelers Have Also Turned 6-2 Starts Into Super Bowl Runs

The history is not all bad. Some of the best seasons in franchise history started exactly this way. The 2005 and 2008 teams were both 6-2 after eight games, and both went on to win the Super Bowl.

The 2010 team is the most interesting comparison for this year's group. Pittsburgh started 6-2 that season and reached Super Bowl XLV, where it lost to the Green Bay Packers. The head coach and quarterback on the other sideline that night were McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers, who are now trying to lead the Steelers on the same kind of run.

What separated those teams from the early exits is how they played in November and December. The teams that made deep runs kept winning in the second half and earned favorable playoff seeding. The teams that faded, like the 2024 group, limped into January and were gone in a week.

That makes the next stretch critical, and it starts Sunday night against the Cincinnati Bengals. Both teams are 6-2, and Pittsburgh already won the first meeting 30-27 in Week 3. NBC Sports noted that the teams' combined .750 winning percentage is the best for a Steelers-Bengals game this late in a season since 2009, which happens to be the year of that lone 6-2 collapse. ESPN's Brooke Pryor explained what is at stake in this week's power rankings.

"A win against the Bengals would go a long way to securing the division title -- and earning a top-four playoff seed," Pryor wrote.

A division title matters because it means a home playoff game. A loss would hand the Bengals the lead, and SteelerNation covered why that is dangerous, since Cincinnati has the NFL's easiest remaining schedule.

There are reasons to think this team can avoid the usual fade. The defense has been one of the league's best during the winning streak, and Jaylen Warren has given the offense a running game it can lean on late in the year, as SteelerNation noted when he earned a midseason honor from PFF. Wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is also close to returning from injured reserve.

Still, the Steelers have not won a playoff game since the 2016 season, and that drought is the real measuring stick. History says a 6-2 start will get this team into the tournament. What the Steelers do over the next nine games will decide whether they look more like the 2008 team or the 2024 one.

This story was produced with the help of AI and reviewed by SteelerNation editors.

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