With the off-season finally winding down and the Pittsburgh Steelers set to depart for Latrobe later this month, it's time to take a look ahead at some ways the Steelers can win you money in 2022. If you have followed me over the past two years, then you cashed all three of our future bets last year and hit at over 70% on our week-to-week prop bets.
Our formula for success is simple - beat the books at what they don't know. As I've outlined before, our goal isn't to find the best odds or the best lines. The way we win these bets consistently every year is to outsmart Vegas by paying close attention to smaller moves the Steelers make in the off-season that Vegas doesn't deem to move the needle. Last year, we had the Steelers over their win total of 8.5, to make the playoffs at +170, and Diontae Johnson over 950.5 receiving yards. We have three bets this year that I believe have the ability to sweep the board again.
Over 7.5 Wins (-120)
This bet is as simple as it sounds. In a league with 17 regular season games, all this bet entails is the Steelers to go 8-9 and finish below .500 for the first time under Mike Tomlin. Tomlin, who has established himself as one of the greatest coaches of his generation, has never finished below .500 in a season and don't expect 2022 to be any different. Yes, long-time quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has retired, but the quarterbacks that Tomlin has in his arsenal are capable of winning games in the NFL and carrying a team. The defense for the Steelers is easily a top 5 unit when healthy and can help navigate the team while the quarterbacks get their feet under them. Lock this one in as free money with the Steelers to win over 7.5 games in 2022.
Najee Harris Over 1,120.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
This bet is as simple as it sounds - Harris to record greater than 1,120 rushing yards during the 2022 season. Coming off the best season for a running back in Steelers history, Harris is set up to have an even better sophomore campaign.
The Steelers reworked their offensive line by adding veterans during free agency with James Daniels and Mason Cole. They also added versatility at the quarterback position with Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. This versatility should create multiple run lanes and an added wrinkle to the offense that can help Harris takeoff in 2022. Have confidence in a huge year two jump for Harris in 2022 and lock this in as a guaranteed winner.
Pittsburgh Steelers running back, Najee Harris (#22), exits the tunnel at Heinz Field during a 2021 regular season game. | Twitter: @JSKO_PHOTO
TJ Watt to Win Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) (+600)
Ever since Watt was drafted by Pittsburgh in 2017, he has improved every year. Watt culminated his great career to date by winning the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2021. So how can Watt improve on one of the best seasons by a defensive player in NFL history? Well, it may be extremely difficult, but if anyone can do it, it's Watt.
Watt currently has the second best odds at +600 only behind Myles Garrett who is at +500. Watt, who tied the NFL sack record in 2021 with 22.5 sacks only played in 14.5 out of 17 games for the Steelers. With a full off-season to reflect on his monster year, Watt is poised to take his game to another level and follow in his brother's footsteps by repeating as back-to-back DPOY in 2022.
Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher, TJ Watt (#90), celebrates a sack during a 2021 regular season home game at Heinz Field. | Twitter: @JSKO_PHOTO
What's your favorite bet for the Steelers in 2022? Sound off in the comments below!
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