The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in uncharted territory; playing spoiler. All playoff hopes were basically shattered last week in the form of an ugly loss to the Baltimore Ravens and they’re simply looking at draft position at this point. This week’s slate takes Pittsburgh to the sunny south in Charlotte, North Carolina to take on the Carolina Panthers. Although both teams sit at 5-8, the Panthers are right in the thick of the NFC South division race and need to win out to clinch a playoff berth.
Similar to what Steelers fans are used to at this point of the year, this week is a playoff game for Carolina and they are bringing the house against a lowly Pittsburgh squad.
Steelers' Mitch Trubisky (#10) gets the offense ready against the Baltimore Ravens in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
Let’s take a look at some things we can look forward to when the Steelers take on the Panthers.
MATCHUPS AT A GLANCE
Offense: With Kenny Pickett (concussion) missing action this week, it will be Mitch Trubisky who will get the start under center on Sunday. Trubisky entered the game last week after Pickett got knocked out and, for who was considered the starter for the first four weeks of the season, looked horrendous.
Although Trubisky would have a decent stat line of 22 completions on 30 attempts for 276 yards and a touchdown, it was three interceptions that would kill momentous offensive drives in key moments. Looking at the matchup this week, he’ll have his hands full against a sneaky-good secondary led by Jaycee Horn and Jeremy Chinn. This is where we’ll find the most intriguing matchup this week.
The Carolina defense has improved as the season has worn on. They’ve caused six turnovers in the last four games and have hung tough in big moments. But with that said, this defense has not done well against above-average receiving groups in the few times they’ve seen them. Those coming in the form of the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, both games of which the Panthers lost. Therefore, we should be watching for Trubisky, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens against the Carolina pass defense.
Steelers' George Pickens (#14) lines up against the Baltimore Ravens in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
Although he is a critical part of the offensive attack, Pat Freiermuth may see some tough sledding against Chinn and a Carolina defense who has been fairly effective in covering opposing tight ends. So, that will likely leave the bulk of targets to Johnson and Pickens, and that is where things get interesting. Pickens will most likely be seeing a lot of Horn who has been having an impressive season so far. Horn was drafted eighth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft to be a true lock down cornerback and he has done exactly that in 2022.
Ironically enough, Pickens hasn’t seen a lot of success against the NFC South opponents in 2022. Combined amongst the previous three matchups, Pickens has logged a total of 7 catches for 63 yards and no touchdowns. I think we’ll see another frustrated Pickens in Charlotte on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Johnson has had a less-than-ideal season after sitting out in training camp, lobbying for a new contract. The only form of a score we’ve seen from Johnson was a two-point conversion back in the second week of the season. Johnson will likely be seeing a lot of C.J. Henderson, who logged a pair of pass deflections and an interception last week in his matchup against D.K. Metcalf. We’ve already seen smoke signals indicating some potential rifts between Johnson and Trubisky throughout the season, and this week’s matchup will either alleviate them or aggravate those even more.
Steelers' Diontae Johnson (#18) lines up against the Baltimore Ravens in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
Defense: For a group that prides themselves on being physical run-stoppers, the Pittsburgh defense got gashed last week against the Ravens. They saw J.K. Dobbins post 120 yards on the ground with a touchdown in his first game back off the Injured Reserve List and couldn’t stop the supporting cast on top of that. When the dust settled, the Ravens tallied 215 yards on the ground and only passed the ball 17 times.
The Panthers are looking at that blueprint and are building out their own rushing attack to expose a weakened rush defense. This is where we find the biggest matchup on defense; the Pittsburgh rush defense versus the Panthers’ “Arby’s Package.”
Since interim head coach Steve Wilks took over after the termination of Matt Rhule in Carolina, his commitment to the run game has been profound. So much so, they average over 32 rush attempts per game while averaging over 146 yards per game on the ground. If we look at the last four games, they’ve had a pair of games with over 200 rushing yards and one with over 180 yards. If we look at their last three games from a play-call perspective, they’ve ran the ball over 57 percent of the time on offense, which leads the entire NFL.
D’Onta Foreman has led the way by rushing for 341 yards in the last four games. Behind him is Chuba Hubbard who has 153 yards on the ground in that same time span with rookie Raheem Blackshear bringing up the rear with 64 yards. Similar to what we saw last week, there is a committee approach to the Carolina rushing attack, often times paired with jumbo set packages. We heard head coach Mike Tomlin say this week they’ll be looking to make ‘schematic changes’ to account for this large task. It is just a matter of seeing how effective those changes will be.
The Steelers' defense gets ready to take on the Baltimore Ravens in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
That task starts squarely with Cameron Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi up front. Ogunjobi (toe) missed practice time this week, but is going to be starting come Sunday. Alex Highsmith has had an incredible third year and has been a force on the outside paired with T.J. Watt.
However, there will need to be eight men in the box to prevent any break-out plays and if last week was any indication, that is easier said than done. This means Minkah Fitzpatrick will join Devin Bush Jr. and a questionable Myles Jack (groin) up front. Be ready to see Robert Spillane if Jack is a gametime scratch. The defense will need to sell out against the run to get off the field after third downs this week.
PREDICTION
As much as it pains me to say, I don’t see a lot to be confident with heading into this game after last week. As I stated before, this is a playoff game for the Panthers while the Steelers are just looking to end the season on a high note. Prediction, Steelers 17, Panthers 23.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Steelers have had a large amount of success against the Panthers. They are 6-1 with the only loss coming in 1996. For reference, Johnson was a mere five months old, Watt was two years old, Fitzpatrick was just one month old, and Pickett, Pickens, and the majority of the roster wasn’t born yet when that happened. With that said, there is a large elephant to address in the room. All fans are well aware of Tomlin’s streak of most consecutive seasons without a losing record. A loss Sunday however, would clinch the ninth loss of the season, and Tomlin’s first losing record in his 15-year tenure in Pittsburgh.
What are you watching for on Sunday? What do you think the final outcome will be? Let us know in the comments below!
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