After stacking wins for the first time of the season, the Pittsburgh Steelers return home for week 14 action. Coming into town is the dreaded AFC North division rival Baltimore Ravens for their first faceoff of 2022. The Steelers have developed into a cohesive group on offense and the defense has made strides in locking down the run. On the other side, the Ravens enter this week without Lamar Jackson (knee) and are still in search for a strong offensive performance. With Baltimore sitting atop the division with Pittsburgh at the bottom, a divisional win would be monumental in propelling the recipient into the playoff conversation. A loss, however, would be detrimental with just five games left of the season.
Let’s take a look at some things we can look forward to when the Steelers take on the Ravens.
MATCHUPS AT A GLANCE
Offense: We’ve seen Kenny Pickett blossom seemingly overnight since the bye week. After seeing top-ranked defenses early in his career, he’s settled down and has done well under pressure. But with that said, he’s never seen a defense like what he'll see on Sunday and he has never gone through a ‘Ravens Week’ before. The defense he is going to see is one that thrives in the trenches and at the linebacker position. Therefore, that is the matchup to watch on Sunday; Pickett versus the Baltimore linebackers and blitz packages.
Baltimore always seems to find themselves at the top of the list in various defensive categories. They are currently second in the NFL in average rushing yards allowed per game (82.5 yards) and ninth in average points allowed per game (19.7 points). However, for a defense who has made a reputation of aggressive blitz schemes and bringing more bodies into the box, they are 22nd in the league in blitz rate, sitting at just over 20 percent. But Pickett can’t be fooled when looking across at the daunting pair of linebackers across the line from him. Those being Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith.
Ravens' Patrick Queen (#6) and Roquan Smith (#18) work together in practice. | Credit: Baltimore Ravens
Queen was drafted 28th overall in the 2020 draft and has been dominant inside of the defense. He leads the team at tackles (85 total) and tackles for loss (8). Meanwhile, Smith was acquired via trade from the Chicago Bears and has been an instant spark next to Queen. In just a span of four games with Baltimore, he’s racked up 31 total tackles with 3 tackles for loss and a sack. It is no secret the duo of Queen and Smith live in the backfield and like to make quarterbacks uncomfortable. Ironically enough, this is exactly where Pickett excels, and he talked some about his preparation this week leading into the game:
"Yeah, absolutely. They do a lot of really good things," he said. "Their blitz package is pretty diverse.""I think we do a great job of going through all the looks during the week," Pickett continued. "And just knowing our game plan and where I need to get the ball out if pressure comes up. I think that stuff all goes into it."
So far this season against the blitz, Pickett has a 72.1 completion percentage for 481 yards and tossed three touchdowns, per Pro Football Focus. The math adds up to a passer rating of 106.3. In addition, he hasn’t turned the ball over, which was a major priority after Pickett’s October. But Pickett has had a lot of the help along the way.
Fellow rookie George Pickens was frustrated last week after a lowly two targets and was focused this week in practice in getting back to the large target he was. But like Pickett, Pickens hasn’t seen the Ravens and this rivalry up close and personal. There is going to be frustrations on offense on Sunday. If Pickens can keep cool and Pickett finds him under pressure, we’ll see that positive trend against the blitz continue.
Steelers' Kenny Pickett (#8) drops back among a sea of defenders against the Cincinnati Bengals in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
Defense: Obviously, the absence of Jackson is huge for the defense. But with that said, Baltimore has built their depth chart to align with their run-first offensive scheme and that includes the quarterback position; enter Tyler Huntley. Similar to Jackson, Huntley is known for his feet and ability to allude pressure in the pocket. But with any backup quarterback scenario, the running game is going to need to step up to take the pressure off Huntley. This is where we find the biggest matchup on defense and something we’ve talked about the last couple of weeks; the Pittsburgh rush defense versus the Baltimore committee of running backs.
If you’re like me, you may have horrific flashbacks of backup Ravens' running backs be the difference maker in tight games, sometimes leading to a Steelers’ loss. This game is poised to fit that similar mold. Starter J.K. Dobbins was activated off the Injured Reserve List on Saturday and is slated to make his first start since being sidelined with a nagging knee injury. Behind him, we find Gus Edwards who earned the majority of starting reps in place of Dobbins. He missed some time in November, which then led Kenyan Drake into the starting role and Drake didn’t disappoint. He’s effective in the run game but can still run between the tackles. There is still Justice Hill on the depth chart, but we’ll see if he is active with Dobbins back in the mix. In short, there is a vast, deep running back committee coming to Pittsburgh and the defense is going to have a tough task in stopping it.
Steelers' Cameron Heyward (#97) and Head Coach Mike Tomlin game plan for the Baltimore Ravens in December, 2021 in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
That task starts squarely up front with Cameron Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi. T.J. Watt missed practice time this week with his continued injury, but is going to be starting come Sunday. Opposite Watt, Alex Highsmith has had an incredible third year and has been a force on the outside. But going against a high-motor offense, there will need to be eight men in the box to prevent big runs. This means Minkah Fitzpatrick will join Devin Bush and Myles Jack up front. I know I threw a lot of names out there, but the formula is simple. To stop a village of running backs, it’ll take a village of defenders. The defense has seen this story before, and they know what to do to control it, and that involves loading the box on each play.
PREDICTION
I’ll keep this short and sweet. The will to win of the home team will out-muscle the visiting back-up quarterback. Not to mention, it’s December football in Pittsburgh. Prediction, Steelers 26, Ravens, 23.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This may be odd to think, but this is will be the first time since 2004 where Ben Roethlisberger won’t be on the sidelines for Ravens Week. With that said, Pittsburgh hasn’t had much success in the rivalry without Roethlisberger under center. So much so, the Ravens have won 10 of the last 11 games when someone else plays quarterback. However, the Steelers hold a 6-4 record in their last 10 games against the Ravens in Pittsburgh. Further, Pittsburgh is 8-3 in their last 11 games against Baltimore and the AFC North rival hasn’t won in the series in just under three years. This game is always played tough, but the Steelers have found themselves on the winning side in recent history.
What are you watching for on Sunday? What do you think the final outcome will be? Let us know in the comments below!
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