Jon Gruden Makes Powerful Steelers Prediction Against Falcons

The Pittsburgh Steelers will finally begin the Mike McCarthy era on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, and former head coach Jon Gruden apparently has very little doubt about how the matchup is going to unfold. Pittsburgh enters Week 1 with significant changes on both sides of the football, including McCarthy taking control of the offense and Patrick Graham becoming the new defensive coordinator. Gruden believes those changes could immediately produce the type of physical Steelers football fans have been waiting to see.

Atlanta is walking into Acrisure Stadium with some legitimate concerns of its own. The Falcons will be without two young edge rushers they invested first-round picks in during the 2025 NFL Draft, with Jalon Walker out for the season and James Pearce Jr. suspended. Pittsburgh also owns a remarkable historical advantage in this matchup, as Atlanta has never won a game in Pittsburgh and carries an 0-7-1 road record against the Steelers.

Gruden discussed the matchup on The Gruden Family Football Show while breaking down Week 1. The former NFL head coach made his admiration for McCarthy clear before turning his attention toward just how little confidence he has in Atlanta. He believes Pittsburgh has an opportunity to make a physical statement immediately.

"Well, I will say this. I love Mike McCarthy," Gruden said. "I think he is [going to] do a h**l of a job. Atlanta is 0-7-1 in Pittsburgh. They have never won before and guess what? They're never [going to] win again."

That is quite the prediction before McCarthy has even coached his first regular season game for the Steelers. Gruden is not merely picking Pittsburgh to win a close opener. His comments suggest he believes there are several reasons the Steelers should be able to control this matchup, and Atlanta's depleted group of edge rushers was near the top of his list.

Gruden also questioned what he has seen from the Falcons offensively outside of star running back Bijan Robinson. That could become particularly important against a Pittsburgh defense attempting to rebound from an inconsistent 2025 season. The Steelers finished 26th in total defense last year, allowing 356.9 yards per game, despite possessing several prominent defensive players. 

Graham was brought in to help change that. Pittsburgh still has TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig rushing the passer, but the Steelers also made changes behind them that Gruden specifically wants to see make an impact. That includes veteran defensive backs Jamel Dean, Rayshawn Jenkins and safety Jaquan Brisker as Pittsburgh attempts to establish a more complete defense.

"I'm tired of hearing about the pass rushers," Gruden said. "I [want to] see Brisker and Jamel Dean come in here, some of these new players, Rayshawn Jenkins... I [want to] see the Steelers' defense pick it up and win a physical game, like the Steelers are known to do."

That might be the most interesting part of Gruden's assessment. Watt and Pittsburgh's pass rush have received enormous attention for years, but the Steelers need the entire defense to improve if they are going to become the unit Graham wants. The secondary being able to complement the pressure generated up front could be one of the biggest differences between Pittsburgh's 2025 defense and what fans see in 2026.

Steelers Have Chance To Make Huge Week 1 Statement

Pittsburgh has plenty working in its favor heading into the opener. Atlanta has never won in Pittsburgh, its young pass-rushing duo will not be available, and McCarthy has an opportunity to immediately establish what his version of Steelers football is supposed to look like. The Steelers lead the all-time series 16-2-1 and have won five consecutive meetings against Atlanta.

None of that guarantees Pittsburgh will dominate on Sunday, but Gruden certainly sounds like someone expecting exactly that type of performance. His challenge to Graham's defense is particularly notable because simply relying on Watt and the pass rush will not be enough. Pittsburgh needs its new additions to make the defense more complete and help restore the physical identity that has historically followed the franchise.

If McCarthy's offense finds an early rhythm and Graham's defense answers Gruden's challenge, the Steelers could have an opportunity to start their new era with a convincing statement at Acrisure Stadium.

Do you agree with Gruden that the Steelers are ready to physically control the Falcons in Week 1 under McCarthy and Graham? Make sure to follow me on X at @anthonyghalkias for more Steelers news, analysis, and updates. 

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