After their first winning month of the season, the Pittsburgh Steelers set their sights on their third NFC South opponent in the Atlanta Falcons. The Steelers are undefeated against the lousy southern division and are looking to continue that streak on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Atlanta has dropped three of their last four games and are looking to get back in their respective division championship race. Similar to what we saw last week, this is another do-or-die game for each team and their slim playoff hopes will either reignite with a win or extinguish with a loss. We are officially in December football.
Steelers' Cameron Heyward (#97) gets ready for another fierce rushing attack in the Atlanta Falcons. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
Let’s take a look at some things we can look forward to when the Steelers take on the Falcons.
MATCHUPS AT A GLANCE
Offense: With the Atlanta defense allowing an average of over 383 yards per game to opposing offenses, Kenny Pickett and company are going to have plenty of chances to move the ball. Not to mention, Atlanta leads the entire NFL in total yards allowed in the season with 4,597. With that being said, there are going to be a lot of playmakers with the ball in their hands. However, with the injury bug biting the running backs room after another impressive performance on Monday combined with a relatively stout Atlanta defensive line, it may be Pickett and the pass catches to shoulder the production. This is where we’ll find our key matchups.
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The offense currently features a trio of pass catchers with over 500 yards, led by Pat Freiermuth with 521 yards. Behind him is George Pickens with 510 yards and Diontae Johnson with 505 yards. Freiermuth’s matchup is by far the most favorable. The Falcons have given up the 13th-highest catch rate and 9th-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. This is primarily due to the fact Atlanta defensive coordinator Dean Pees rarely (if ever) plays a money backer scheme. This will pair second-year safety Richie Grant against Freiermuth. Grant has been a bright spot in an otherwise under-manned secondary, but Freiermuth poses a daunting task he’s never seen before. In addition, Freiermuth sees targets over a quarter of the time, so Pickett is going to be looking to expose this mismatch early and often.
Steelers' Pat Freiermuth (#88) gets ready for a favorable matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
Looking at Johnson and Pickens, their matchups are a bit tougher. Johnson is likely to be lined up against A.J. Terrell. Last week against the Washington Commanders, Terrell saw a lot of 2021 Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin. In that matchup, Terrell only allowed a single reception for 3 yards on 14 routes. He only allowed a pair of targets. It is safe to say Terrell is going to be looking for a repeat performance while Johnson’s production is still not what we expected earlier in the season.
Pickens is slated to face off against Darren Hall, who hasn’t been spectacular in coverage this season. He’s allowed a quarterback rating of 125.3 with a pair of touchdowns. Each week it seems the Pickett-to-Pickens connection gets stronger and stronger and there is a good chance we’ll see this often on Sunday. With Johnson presumably being locked up against Terrell, there is a good chance Pickens’ 16 percent target share on the season increases. There are going to be lots of opportunities for Pickens downfield, and Pickett will need to take full advantage of those to move the ball.
Defense: The Atlanta offense is very similar to what the defense saw last week; a heavy rushing attack with a veteran quarterback topped with an impressive, young receiver. Therefore, the game plan should mimic what we saw last week. But instead of Jonathan Taylor, we’ll see a lot of Cordarrelle Patterson with a taste of Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley. When we consider the fact the Falcons run the ball over 56 percent of their offensive snaps, it’ll be Patterson, Allgeier, and Huntley who will need to be bottled up for the defense to get off the field.
Similar to last week, this matchup starts up front. The Falcons’ offensive line has been the largest reason as to their successful run game, as they average about 2.3 yards per carry before contact. For reference, not that I’m saying they’re any better, the Steelers are averaging 1.1 yards before contact. Fortunately for the defense, DeMarvin Leal is back after being on the Injured Reserve List and the full cast of characters will be participating in the effort. Cameron Heyward, Larry Ogunjobi, and Chris Wormley will need to repeat what they did last Monday and if they do, they’ll continue their impressive post-bye week defensive streak.
Steelers' Cameron Heyward (#97) leads the defensive line through drills in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
With the run game being the focus, this may lead Marcus Mariotta to pass against a secondary who has five interceptions in the last three games. Although Patterson is incredibly effective in the pass game, Drake London and Olamide Zaccheaus will see increased targets with tight end Kyle Pitts out for the remainder of the season. London will likely be lined up against Cam Sutton with Zaccheaus lined up against Levi Wallace. Between the two pass catchers, Zaccheaus saw the most target share last week with 32 percent and 91 receiving yards. London only tallied 29 yards, so there is a bit of a divide between the two, but Zaccheaus may have one of those sneaky-good games if they find themselves playing from behind.
PREDICTION
This game is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Steelers. They need to start stacking wins and Atlanta’s weaknesses fall right into their strengths. There are going to be some special teams scares with Patterson, but the defense will stand tall in the critical moments. Prediction, Steelers 30, Falcons 24.
Steelers' Levi Wallace (#29) gets ready for the Atlanta Falcons. | Credit: Taylor Ollason/Pittsburgh Steelers
FINAL THOUGHTS
There are a lot of positive facts for Pittsburgh going into this game. First, head coach Mike Tomlin holds a .650 winning percentage in the regular season when playing in a dome, which is the highest in the NFL among non-dome opponents since 2007. Further, Tomlin is 3-0 against the Falcons and the last time the Steelers lost to Atlanta was in 2006. The all-time record between these teams is 14-2-1 in favor of Pittsburgh. Finally, the Steelers have 120 regular season wins against the NFC, which is the most among the AFC since the merger in 1970.
What are you watching for on Sunday? What do you think the final outcome will be? Let us know in the comments below!
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