This may not need to be said, but this week for the Pittsburgh Steelers and the entire NFL has been a somber one. What was slated to be a grand, joyous celebration of the 50th-year anniversary of the famed Immaculate Reception culminating with the retirement of Franco Harris’ number 32, is now a time of mourning and remembrance after Harris’ sudden death this past Wednesday.
Not to mention, with this game falling on Christmas Eve, the annual holiday spirit seemed to have frozen over as the frigid, arctic air has imposed its will on the city of Pittsburgh. With the Las Vegas Raiders coming into town, the Steelers are going to have to keep their emotions in check and honor Harris the best way they know how.
With a win.
PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 19, 2021: Steelers' Alex Highsmith (#56), Tre Norwood (#21), Cam Sutton (#20), and Terrell Edmunds (#34) line up against the Las Vegas Raiders. | Photo Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
Some Things We Can Look Forward To When The Steelers Take On The Raiders
Offense: As I alluded to, the temperature at kickoff is forecasted to be a ‘real-feel’ of negative 14 degrees with significant wind gusts. Needless to say, the expectation of Kenny Pickett slinging the ball downfield and posting 250 yards through the air is a bit lofty. Even though the Raiders are bringing the 26th-ranked pass defense in the league, the weather conditions are posed to be the extra defender for both teams.
Therefore, the offense will need to continue their formula from last week, adding an extra lineman in the formation and running the ball between the tackles with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. This matchup against the visiting defensive front is one to watch when the Steelers have the ball.
PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 19, 2021: Steelers' Najee Harris (#22) lines up against the Las Vegas Raiders. | Photo Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
Pittsburgh has seemed to have found its stride in the run game as of late. Last week against the Carolina Panthers, the offense tallied 124 yards between the duo of Harris and Warren on 35 carries with a pair of touchdowns. Included in that, we saw more of their “jumbo” package, featuring Trent Scott who reported as an eligible receiver, lined up in the tight end spot on the line. We saw this formation 10 times, one of which was in Warren’s touchdown run where he ran to that strong side of the line. Another was on the Harris touchdown run in the first quarter.
To put it simply, the offense succeeds in the red zone with Scott and the jumbo package on the field. But how does this stack up against the Raiders’ defensive front?
Las Vegas has been relatively mediocre against the run in 2022. They’re sitting at about 16th in the league based on yardage allowed with an average of 117.4 yards per game to opposing offenses. Their defensive front is anchored on the outside by Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones with Andrew Billings and Bilal Nichols inside. The Raiders are relying on those four contributors to lock down the run the majority of the time, as they are blitzing 26.9 percent of the time, which is the 13th most in the league.
Steelers running backs Najee Harris (#22) and Jaylen Warren (#30) on the field at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA. | Photo Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
With that said, there is a wrinkle to take advantage of, which could bode well for Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada’s scheme. Las Vegas only has 25 sacks on the season, which is 29th in the league. Therefore, although this game is set up to see Harris and Warren running in between the tackles, there are going to be opportunities for those ‘extended run plays’ being screens and swing passes. We should see Pickett get the ball to Harris and Warren early and often to methodically move the ball down the frozen Acrisure field.
Defense: The Raiders’ offense features some big-time playmakers at almost every level. Similar to what we just talked about with the Pittsburgh offense, Las Vegas will most likely be looking to lean on Josh Jacobs and the run game a bit more than usual with the weather forecast. However, I see Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith keeping Jacobs in check on the ground. So much so, it’ll leave Derek Carr and the offense to follow their current trend of a pass-first attack.
This trend includes passing plays to be called over 59 percent of the time so far this season, with almost 61 percent of their plays being passes on the road. This trend comes with good reason. They feature the likes of Davante Adams and the continued welcomed return of Darren Waller, who is coming back into action for the second time since landing on the Injured Reserve list on November 10th with a lingering hamstring injury. It is these two players Minkah Fitzpatrick, Levi Wallace and Cameron Sutton will be shadowing all night long.
PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 19, 2021: Steelers' Cameron Heyward (#97) lines up against the Las Vegas Raiders. | Photo Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
Covering Adams and Waller is clearly no easy task. In his career in Green Bay, Adams has amassed 146 yards on 11 catches with a touchdown against Pittsburgh in two games. Although he is now playing with a much different quarterback, Adams hasn’t missed a step in Las Vegas and is used to playing in the cold. In the spirit of the season, one could say the cold never bothered him anyway. He’ll most likely be seeing a lot of Sutton with some sort of double-coverage help over the top, but depending on where Adams lines up, he could also see Wallace. This is where it gets tricky for the Steelers.
With Waller now back in the fold and showing he is still a top-tier tight end, he is an obvious matchup nightmare the defense will need to address. With Jacobs presumably lining up a lot in the backfield and Fitzpatrick looking to be that safety help with Adams, this may leave a linebacker on Waller, which doesn’t set up for a favorable defensive matchup. We’ve already seen mismatches pairing Robert Spillane on top receivers and getting exposed, and this may rear its ugly head Saturday night. The defense is going to need to find a way to either get Arthur Maulet or Terrell Edmunds on Waller for an effective double-team on Adams to shut down the offense.
PREDICTION
The Raiders have had the Steelers’ number since the series started in 1970, leading to a 17-13 record in favor of the silver and black. These are two teams whose playoff hopes are on life support. There is definitely something special about this game and the weather is setting up for a low-scoring affair. I’ll go out on a limb with this in the spirit of something 'immaculate' that happened 50 years ago. Prediction, Steelers 13, Raiders 7.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Like those before him, Head Coach Mike Tomlin has not had much success against the Raiders in his career. However, the Steelers have outscored the Raiders by a total of 184-170 under Tomlin. In regards to the weather forecast, Saturday night is going to be near-record conditions for Pittsburgh.
But they have seen these types of conditions before. According to Pro Football Reference, Pittsburgh is 3-3 when playing in temperatures under 15 degrees. When playing in 20 degrees and below, they are 11-9. The coldest game on record, according to Stathead, was against the Cincinnati Bengals in Cincinnati on December 10th, 1977 where there was a windchill of negative 17 degrees. The Bengals would win that game, 17-10.
What are you watching on Saturday night? What do you think the final outcome will be? Let us know in the comments below!
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