With the miserable first half of the season now in the rearview mirror, the Pittsburgh Steelers set their sights on the New Orleans Saints coming out of the bye week. Sitting at 2-6, they’re lying in the basement of the AFC North division and are eager to get back into the “win” column. Meanwhile, the Saints come into the week with a 3-6 record, but maintain some sort of fight for first place in the weak NFC South division. Needless to say, this is a must-win for both teams and a win would help set the tone for the remainder of the season. A loss however, would most likely cement the recipient in their respective division cellar.
Steelers' Kenny Pickett (#8) and offensive coordinator Matt Canada work on the game plan in preparation for the New Orleans Saints in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Abigail Dean/Pittsburgh Steelers
Let’s take a look at some things we can look forward to when the Steelers take on the Saints.
MATCHUPS AT A GLANCE
Offense: With a week off, there was a lot to address for offensive coordinator Matt Canada and the offense. Ranking towards the bottom of almost every statistical category, it shouldn’t come as a shock for them to simply want to build early momentum, convert on third downs, and sustain drives in the first quarter. The biggest key to accomplishing that is to take the pressure off the rookie quarterback, Kenny Pickett, and keeping him comfortable in the pocket. That all starts with the biggest matchup to watch on offense; the Steelers’ offensive line versus the Saints’ defensive front.
Overall, the New Orleans defense hasn’t been bad. I’d go as far to argue they’ve overperformed based off pre-season expectations. Although they’ll be without stud cornerback Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) and have safety Marcus Maye (abdomen) listed as questionable, New Orleans currently features a top ten pass defense. Star safety Tyrann Mathieu has been a big part of that and will require a game plan to solely remove him from the game. Not to mention, they thrive on zone defense with a four-down linemen look to effectively get to the quarterback. Therefore, after watching Pickett and the wide receivers sputter against worse pass defenses, the offensive line will need to take control up front and prescribe heavy doses of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren behind a rested offensive front.
Steelers' Chukwuma Okorafor gets ready to take on Cameron Jordan and the New Orleans Saints in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Abigail Dean/Pittsburgh Steelers
Although their pass defense has been impressive, the Saints’ rush defense has been mediocre. They’re averaging over 120 yards per game on the ground to opposing defenses. But the front of the push starts with Chukwuma Okorafor minimizing Cameron Jordan on the edge. Jordan has been one of the most consistent anchors along the New Orleans defensive line. But outside of Jordan, there isn’t much of a threat beyond him.
Seeing as though New Orleans plays more of a cover-zone-first scheme, the offensive line should be able to get decent movement up front and keep drives within their third-and-manageable objective. To keep it simple, they will have plenty of opportunities to run the ball and get back to a strong ground game on Sunday; they just need exploit a questionable defensive line in order to capitalize on those.
Defense: This week brought a bit of a mixed bag for the defense. For the first time since the opening week, we’ll be able to see the much-needed return of T.J. Watt (pectoral) and the debut of safety Damonte Kazee (forearm). However, they will be without Minkah Fitzpatrick after news revealed late Saturday that the safety had to undergo an emergency appendectomy and will miss a few weeks to recover. As they’ll need to compensate for the absence of Fitzpatrick to account for a fast offensive attack that can be a bit unconventional, expect a lot of a nickel package on defense. Ironically enough, this is the biggest matchup to watch on defense; the Pittsburgh nickel defense versus the New Orleans Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara, and Chris Olave.
Steelers' TJ Watt (#90) gets ready for the New Orleans Saints in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Abigail Dean/Pittsburgh Steelers
Although Andy Dalton is slated to start under center, he’s played more of a game-manager role than a strong-armed quarterback throughout the season. Another way to word that is, Dalton won’t win or lose the game. However, Hill, Kamara, and a young Olave could if not accounted for accordingly. Kamara is currently averaging over 108 yards per game, while Olave is averaging about 7 receptions per game for over 77 yards.
Hill hasn’t had a lot of experience against Pittsburgh, but defensive coordinator Teryl Austin explained that game planning for Hill took a lot more effort than the other offensive contributors. With Hill lining up anywhere along the line and paired with the elusiveness of Kamara, combined with a strong rookie receiver in Olave, it is going to take more speed than power to control that. This is where the nickel defense comes into play.
Steelers' Damontae Kazee gets ready to take on the New Orleans Saints in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
Throughout the week, we heard head coach Mike Tomlin proclaim strengths of three-safety personnel sets on defense. Although they’ll be without Fitzpatrick, I’d still expect to see that on Sunday. To match the opposing speed on offense, Pittsburgh will need to have a deep rotation of Kazee, Terrell Edmunds, Tre Norwood, Elijah Riley, with Arthur Maulet seeing his fair share of action too. With Watt getting reinserted back into the lineup and hungry to make a splash, New Orleans will look to get the ball to the outside early and often away from him, which is where the extra defensive back will be lurking. The ‘money-backer’ defense will be on full display on Sunday afternoon for the home team and will need to keep the play in front of them in order to get off the field on third down.
Steelers' Elijah Riley (#37) and Terrell Edmunds (#34) get ready for the New Orleans Saints in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Abigail Dean/Pittsburgh Steelers
PREDICTION
There is a lot at play in trying to figure out the outcome this week. First, Tomlin is 5-1 at home after the bye week. On the other hand, he has never beaten the Saints. But with that said, the effect Watt has on games is a real thing. I can see the Steelers coming out swinging and keeping the visitors at bay in a winning effort. Prediction, Steelers 20, Saints, 16.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Even with a less-than-stellar record, the Steelers have some positive mojo coming into this week. First, a little blast from the past. The last time the Steelers beat the Saints was in 2006 in Pittsburgh. Going into that game, Pittsburgh carried a 2-6 record and would ultimately finish with an 8-8 record in former head coach Bill Cowher’s final season. The last time these two teams met was in 2018 which would eventually be Antonio Brown’s final game with Pittsburgh and would not see another regular season snap for the next 267 days. Finally, Pittsburgh currently hold a .833 home winning percentage following a bye week with is tied for the highest in the league going back to 2007. There is clearly a lot of positivity surrounding the home team after their week of rest.
What are you watching for on Sunday? What do you think the final outcome will be? Let us know in the comments below!
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