The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the 2022-23 NFL season with a degree of uncertainty that they haven't had to encounter in quite some time.
The Steelers will enter the new league year with a general manager not named Kevin Colbert for the first time since 2000, and a starting quarterback not named Ben Roethlisberger for the first time since 2004.
There are new free agent players and draft picks that will have to learn how to mesh in with the "standard" set by those who came before them, not to mention a quarterback competition once training camp rolls around.
In addition, the NFL released the schedules for all 32 franchises this past Thursday, with the Steelers landing in a three-way tie with the Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills for the 13th hardest schedule in the league, with an opponents' winning percentage of .512 percent.
Every team's strength of schedule for next season. 👀 (by @Upwork)
— NFL (@NFL) May 12, 2022
📺: 2022 NFL Schedule Release -- Tonight at 8pm ET on @NFLNetwork pic.twitter.com/VCIjmsNK13
As we actually take a look at the Steelers' regular season schedule for 2022-23, I'm going to take you through the best and worst case scenarios for this year's Steelers team.
If you want a more in-depth breakdown of the first month of the season, click HERE for a game-by-game prediction for the first four weeks of the season written by our great staff writers Andrew Kersten and Bob Quinn.
Firstly, take a look at the schedule itself below, or click HERE.
Our 2022 schedule is here‼️ #HereWeGo
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) May 13, 2022
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📺: Watch NFL Schedule Release '22 on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/94w9bKMk19
Best-Case Scenario for Steelers
12-5 or 11-6
I know, I know... I've heard it all before. There's absolutely no way that a team going through this much transition and uncertainty could win 8 games, let alone 11 or 12 right? Not so fast. I believe that even with the changes in place that this team is capable of winning 11-12 games. I'll quickly explain why from the Steelers' side of things.
Through the draft and free agency, the Steelers have improved:
- OL (James Daniels, Mason Cole, Chukwuma Okorafor)
- WR (George Pickens, Calvin Austin III, Gunner Olszewski)
- DT (Montravius Adams, DeMarvin Leal, and hopefully we'll see the return of Stephon Tuitt)
- CB/S (Levi Wallace, the re-signing of Terrell Edmunds)
Along with that comes the introduction of new quarterbacks Mitch Trubisky and first-round draft choice Kenny Pickett, sophomore seasons for RB Najee Harris and TE Pat Freiermuth, as well as the continued high level of play by team staples T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward.
As far as our opponents are concerned, here are some thoughts on my best-case scenario:
Should Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson be suspended and miss both games against the Steelers, I believe the Steelers will beat the Browns twice.
That being said, if he is not suspended, that will be the difference between winning 12 and 11 games, regardless of talent or record, the teams in the AFC North always play each other tough, and I believe the Steelers will split games with each of their division rivals this year. Keep in mind this is a team that beat both the Browns and the Baltimore Ravens twice last year, and could surprise the Cincinnati Bengals in the season opener this year in the same way they surprised the Buffalo Bills in last season's opening game.
While the Miami Dolphins have made significant strides of improvement in the off-season, I still don't trust the play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa against the Steelers defense. The Philadelphia Eagles haven't beaten the Steelers since 2016, and I don't see that changing this year because again, I think the Steelers defensive play will outlast the offensive improvements Philadelphia has made in the off-season.
The only game I'm concerned about in this scenario would be against the Indianapolis Colts. With a stout defense and the play of RB Jonathan Taylor, the Colts could pose a big threat in that Week 12 matchup.
Best-Case Scenario Wins:
- Week 1 @ Bengals
- Week 2 vs. Patriots
- Week 3 @ Browns (if Watson is suspended)
- Week 4 vs. Jets
- Week 7 @ Dolphins
- Week 8 @ Eagles
- Week 10 vs. Saints
- Week 12 @ Colts
- Week 13 @ Falcons
- Week 14 vs. Ravens
- Week 15 @ Panthers
- Week 18 vs. Browns
Best-Case Scenario Losses:
- Week 5 @ Bills
- Week 6 vs. Buccaneers
- Week 11 vs. Bengals
- Week 16 vs. Raiders
- Week 17 @ Ravens
I know that many will believe it's a long shot, but the Steelers just might surprise some fans and pundits alike this year.
We do, however, need to take a look at the other side of the spectrum and see what a possible worst-case scenario could lie ahead for the 2022-23 Steelers as well.
Worst-Case Scenario for Steelers
6-11
This would be the first losing season for the Steelers under Head Coach Mike Tomlin. Perhaps the offense doesn't quite figure it out year one, the defense falls off or is over-taxed, and the growing pains of not having Ben Roethlisberger present themselves in a transparent way throughout the season.
The worst-case scenario presents a situation where the Steelers lose all six division games, and where the only teams the Steelers would beat that were .500 or better the year before would be the Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, and New Orleans Saints.
What gives me pause about the worst-case scenario is the Steelers regular season campaign in 2019. I believe the roster is better now than it was then, along with the fact that we had two different starting quarterbacks that season (Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges), and still were able to win 8 games.
If Tomlin didn't have his first losing season then, I don't believe it will happen now, however, here's what the wins and losses look like in the worst-case scenario:
Worst-Case Scenario Wins:
- Week 4 vs. Jets
- Week 7 @ Dolphins
- Week 8 @ Eagles
- Week 10 vs. Saints
- Week 13 @ Falcons
- Week 15 @ Panthers
Worst-Case Scenario Losses:
- Week 1 @ Bengals
- Week 2 vs. Patriots
- Week 3 @ Browns
- Week 5 @ Bills
- Week 6 vs. Buccaneers
- Week 11 vs. Bengals
- Week 12 @ Colts
- Week 14 vs. Ravens
- Week 16 vs. Raiders
- Week 17 @ Ravens
- Week 18 vs. Browns
I think it's also fair to assume that the real record will be somewhere between the two, but I come away from looking at this new Steelers team and the schedule with two takeaways:
- Mike Tomlin will not suffer his first losing season in Pittsburgh.
- The Steelers will make the playoffs this year.
You can check out NFL.com's predictions for all 32 team HERE.
What do you think about both scenarios? Which are you leaning towards more, or is it somewhere in the middle? Let us know in the comment section below.
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