After what could be considered as an encouraging loss last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to western New York to take on the Buffalo Bills in week five action. These teams seem to be moving in opposite directions of each other heading into October. Sitting at 1-3, the Steelers are hoping rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett can turn the tide of the offensive woes and correct the ship into the win column. Meanwhile, the Bills enter this week with a 3-1 record and are riding the arm of Josh Allen to another hopeful deep playoff run. Not a lot of fans are anticipating a close game, but Pickett and the Steelers don’t care. In another early must-win game, Pittsburgh is ready to put the month of September behind them and get back on track on Sunday afternoon.
Steelers' Kenny Pickett works with quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan in preparation for the Buffalo Bills. | Credit: Abigail Dean/Pittsburgh Steelers
Let’s take a look at some things we can look forward to when the Steelers take on the Bills.
MATCHUPS AT A GLANCE
Offense: The first matchup should be fairly unexpected this week; Pickett versus the top-ranked pass defense in the league. Buffalo is averaging a mere 150 yards through the air to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. However, they’re coming into this week with a banged-up secondary including star safety-duo Jordan Poyer (ribs) and Micah Hyde (neck, IR) missing action.
On the other side, Pickett is carrying his full arsenal of receivers into Buffalo with an entire week of practice under their belt. Pickett showed that the months of rookie mini-camp, OTA’s, and training camp with fellow rookie George Pickens produced a strong connection between the two and this resulted in Pickens racking up over 100 yards through the air on 6 receptions last week. Pickett is going to need help from his receivers this week to help provide a large catch radius and strong route running. Going against a weakened secondary, this could bode favorable for Pickett and company.
MYBOOK PICKS OF THE WEEK -- WEEK 5
Pittsburgh Steelers AT Buffalo Bills (-14) -- LOCK IN THE UNDERDOG STEELERS
Indianapolis Colts AT Denver Broncos (-8.5) -- LOCK IN THE UNDERDOG COLTS
Los Angeles Chargers AT Cleveland Browns (+1.5) -- LOCK IN THE CHARGERS
The second matchup to watch on offense is the offensive line versus their defensive front. To reiterate, Pickett is going to need a lot of help to move the ball and it will start with the offensive line. The offensive line hasn’t looked relatively bad thus far, but seemed to take a step back last week. On the other side, the Buffalo defensive front has taken a major step forward with the addition of Von Miller and second-year man Gregory Rousseau on the outside. Miller will likely be lining up across from Dan Moore Jr. with Rousseau across from Chukwuma Okorafor.
On the inside, reports indicate stud defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle) will return to action this week and will be Kevin Dotson’s and Mason Cole’s responsibility. There were several instances last week where Dotson got beat and he’ll need help against Oliver. Pickett will need time to settle himself in his first start and will need to stay upright as a part of that. The offensive line will need to rise to the challenge to keep him standing.
Steelers' Dan Moore Jr. works to get ready for Von Miller and the Buffalo Bills. | Credit: Abigail Dean/Pittsburgh Steelers
Defense: Ironically enough, the Steelers’ defense has been struggling without T.J. Watt and was a culprit in the loss to the New York Jets. After keeping Joe Burrow fairly in check in the first game, they’ve waivered against Mac Jones (252 yards, 1 touchdown), Jacoby Brissett (220 yards, 2 touchdowns), and Zach Wilson (252 yards, 1 touchdown). For reference, Allen is averaging over 306 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. This is why the matchup to watch on defense is Allen and Stephon Diggs versus the Steelers’ linebacker corps and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Myles Jack has been having a quietly good season, as he’s tied for third in the entire league in most tackles with 43. Last season, Jack was a part of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ winning effort in upsetting Allen and company and helped hold the offense to only 6 points for the game. With Watt sitting on IR, Jack is going to have to maintain a spy on Allen and keep him in the pocket to avoid him breaking contain and extending plays. Meanwhile, Devin Bush will need to continue to step up big and plug any escape routes along the line.
Steelers' Devin Bush works to get ready for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. | Credit: Abigail Dean/Pittsburgh Steelers
On the backend of the defense, Fitzpatrick will have his hands full tracking Allen’s eyes while accounting for Diggs. In the 2020 matchup, Diggs tallied 130 receiving yards with a touchdown. In the 2021 upset loss, Diggs only posted 69 receiving yards with no touchdown. Therefore, Fitzpatrick and the secondary must take Diggs out of the play while Jack and company make Allen uncomfortable up front. While this may seem like common sense, the numbers indicate a containment of Allen getting the ball to Diggs will lead to a victory for the defense. For what it is worth, Diggs only had 74 receiving yards without a touchdown in their only loss so far this season to the Miami Dolphins.
PREDICTION
Unlike the past couple of games, this week is incredibly tough to forecast. While Pickett is getting his first ever career start in one of the most difficult environments to play in, he won’t be facing the defense at full strength. On the other hand, it is hard to trust the Steelers’ defense to get the job done against one of the best offenses they’ll see in the entire season. Prediction, Steelers, 24, Bills, 35.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Although Pittsburgh leads the all-time series at 17-11, head coach Mike Tomlin hasn’t fared well against fellow William and Mary alumni Sean McDermott. Last year’s 23-16 victory was Tomlin’s first, and only, victory against McDermott resulting in a 1-2 record his old college teammate. The Steelers are 2-1 all-time against the Bills in the month of October, but the last time the Steelers beat the Bills on the road in October was back in 1972.
Finally, as we saw earlier this week, this isn’t the first time a Steelers’ rookie quarterback faced the top-ranked pass defense in his first start. The only other time this has happened was Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 against the Dolphins. That game resulted in a resounding 13-3 victory with the defense and running game leading the way for Roethlisberger. It’ll be that same formula that will lead the visitors to another upset win this go-around.
What are you watching for on Sunday? What do you think the final outcome will be? Let us know in the comments below!
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